化工日报：需求端库存压力增大，宏观氛围偏暖-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side faces increasing inventory pressure, while the macro - atmosphere is relatively warm. The market anticipates that the new PTA plant of Sanfangxiang will start production around July 17. The domestic social financing and export data are better than expected [1]. - In terms of cost, crude oil maintains a strong - reality and weak - expectation situation. In the short - term, the Houthi rebels' disturbance to Red Sea merchant ships affects the crude oil supply expectation, but the medium - term fundamental expectation is still poor. For PX, the PXN was 253 dollars/ton (a环比 decrease of 8.25 dollars/ton). After the significant compression of PTA basis and processing margin, PTA factories continuously sold PX to push down prices, compressing PXN. With limited supply - side positives and no obvious negative factors on the demand side, the room for further decline in PXN is limited due to low inventory. For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is 8 yuan/ton (a环比 increase of 8 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 124 yuan/ton (a环比 decrease of 56 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 362 yuan/ton (a环比 increase of 2 yuan/ton). With the mainstream suppliers' shipments and the decline of downstream load, along with few PTA plant overhauls in July and the planned start - up of the Sanfangxiang plant, the PTA basis has dropped rapidly, and its fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the possibility of increased overhauls under low processing fees [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.8% (a环比 decrease of 1.4%). Both domestic and foreign sales have entered the off - season, with terminal orders and operations accelerating their decline, and grey fabric inventory accumulating to a high level again. The polyester load has also decreased to 88.8% due to the implementation of bottle - chip overhauls. In the future, attention should be paid to the production - cut trends of filament. With poor downstream stocking willingness and ineffective filament promotions, filament inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level again, and the pressure is gradually increasing. Three major manufacturers have issued production - cut plans again, and the filament load will be under pressure around late July. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overhauls. The short - fiber inventory is not high, so the pressure is acceptable, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback transmission from downstream. For bottle - chips, the load continued to decline this week, and the overhaul plans of several major manufacturers have been gradually implemented. It is expected that the bottle - chip load will remain stable in the short term. For PF, the spot production profit is 211 yuan/ton (a环比 decrease of 44 yuan/ton). Although PF's own fundamentals are acceptable, it is dragged down by the downstream. Due to the hot weather, some spinning mills have cut production, the load has slightly declined, and the inventory has increased slightly. Part of the polyester - cotton yarn has weakened, the load has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased. For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 406 yuan/ton (a环比 decrease of 34 yuan/ton). As prices fall, the replenishment actions of market traders and downstream customers have increased. After the implementation of the overhaul plans of several major manufacturers, it is expected that the bottle - chip load will remain stable in the short term, and the bottle - chip processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton after repair [3]. - In terms of strategies, for single - side trading, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. For PX, in the short - term, the continuous sale of PX by factories has pushed down prices, and there are limited supply - side positives. After August, the contradiction of continuous de - stocking in the balance sheet will be significantly alleviated, and the supply - demand situation is not as strong as before, with PXN being compressed. However, with no obvious negative factors on the demand side and low inventory that is difficult to accumulate, the room for further decline in PXN is limited. For PTA, with the mainstream suppliers' shipments and the decline of downstream load, along with few PTA plant overhauls in July and the planned start - up of the Sanfangxiang plant, the PTA basis has dropped rapidly, and its fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the possibility of increased overhauls under low processing fees. For PF and PR, PF's own fundamentals are acceptable but are dragged down by the downstream; for PR, after the implementation of the overhaul plans of several major manufacturers, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is expected to return to the range for oscillation after repair, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations. For cross - variety trading, short the PTA processing fee at high prices. For cross - period trading, after the PTA basis stabilizes, pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage for PX/PTA month - spreads at low prices [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - It includes charts such as the TA main contract, basis, and cross - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [8][9][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes charts of PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes charts of toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It includes charts of China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [26][29][30] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes charts of PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [32][35][36] Downstream Polyester Loads - It includes charts of filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operating rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [44][46][57] PF Detailed Data - It includes charts of 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [68][70][78] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes charts of polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [88][91][95]