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黑色建材日报:政策预期仍在,钢价偏强运行-20250715
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-15 05:10

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating upwards [1][2] - Iron ore: Oscillating [3][4] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating upwards [5][6][7] - Thermal coal: Oscillating upwards in the short - term, supply remains loose in the long - term [8] Core Views - The expectation of policy combinations persists, boosting market sentiment. The off - season demand for steel is better than expected, and the inventory accumulation is delayed. Iron ore shows a relatively loose supply - demand pattern in the long run, while coking coal and coke are in a supply - tight situation. Thermal coal prices are oscillating upwards in the short term due to increased demand in high - temperature weather, with a long - term supply - loose pattern [1][3][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Steel futures closed stronger at the end of trading yesterday, with the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil rising. Spot trading was average, with prices basically stable and spot transactions reaching 10580 tons. China's steel exports in the first half of this year were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Policy expectations persist, and exports exceed expectations, enhancing steel consumption. The off - season demand is better than expected, and inventory accumulation is delayed. Key factors to watch include basis repair, policy implementation, overseas tariffs, and hedging funds [1] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate upwards [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Iron ore futures prices oscillated yesterday. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The total accumulated transactions at major ports in the country were 955000 tons, a 20.43% increase from the previous day; the accumulated transactions of forward - looking spot goods were 1.69 million tons, a 16.15% increase. The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly this period, with a total shipment of 29.87 million tons. The shipment from Brazil increased significantly, while the shipment from non - mainstream regions decreased significantly. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.621 million tons, an increase of 1.782 million tons from the previous period [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Although the molten iron output has decreased, it remains at a relatively high level in the same period. The consumption of iron ore shows good resilience. In the short term, prices rebounded due to macro - sentiment, but in the long run, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Key factors to watch include the molten iron output and inventory changes during the off - season [3] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Coking coal and coke futures showed mixed performance yesterday, mainly oscillating. The import coal ports were closed, inventory was continuously depleted, and traders were more inclined to hold prices [5] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The first round of price increases for coke is gradually being implemented. Some coking plants are slightly in the red, and the supply has decreased. On the demand side, molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a relatively high level in the same period, and steel mills' profits are acceptable. Coke inventory has slightly increased. For coking coal, the supply has recovered, but the resumption of production is slow. On the demand side, trading is more active, and the replenishment enthusiasm of downstream enterprises has increased, leading to a decrease in coal mine inventory. Overall, the supply of coking coal and coke is tight [6] - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate upwards [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: At the production sites, the procurement prices of large - scale purchasers at stations have increased, and the surrounding stations are actively transporting coal. Most coal mines with high cost - effectiveness are selling smoothly, and prices are rising steadily. With the continuous high - temperature weather, the power load has increased, and the pit - mouth coal prices continue to rise. At ports, the upstream shipping costs have increased, there is a structural shortage at ports, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement has been completed in stages. As the high - temperature range expands, coal consumption increases, and traders have positive expectations for the peak season, providing some support for market prices. For imported coal, the price of high - calorie Australian coal is inverted compared with domestic winning bids, with low liquidity. Indonesian low - calorie coal has obvious cost - effectiveness advantages, and there are many downstream tenders [8] - Supply - Demand and Logic: In July, some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and production capacity is gradually being released. With the rising temperature, demand has strengthened. In the short term, coal prices are oscillating upwards. In the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Key factors to watch include the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [8]