青岛港口库存延续小幅回升

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent warming macro - atmosphere has made futures prices stronger, and the basis of natural rubber has weakened slightly. The improvement of domestic latex import profit and the resumption of raw material output after the end of rain are expected to increase the output of domestic full - latex, but the downstream product demand is weak, so the fundamentals of full - latex remain weak. In July, China is in the seasonal off - season of imports, and the profit of Thai processing plants to Chinese ports is still in a loss pattern, so the domestic import pressure is expected to ease. After the overhaul of downstream semi - steel tires is completed, the operating rate has rebounded, and the supply - demand pattern corresponding to NR has improved slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term because of the slight decline in domestic butadiene supply and the continuous decline in domestic port inventory, which eases the supply pressure of butadiene. Meanwhile, the restart of downstream overhaul devices benefits the demand for butadiene. In the loss pattern of cis - butadiene rubber, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive the continuous rebound of cis - butadiene rubber. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week due to the reduction of overhaul devices, and the tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand. It is expected that cis - butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material to run strongly this week [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,360 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,745 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,685 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 599,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.2%. In the first half of the year, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1% [2] - The start - up of semi - steel tire enterprises that had undergone maintenance has mostly returned to a high level. Due to the decrease in supply, under normal shipments of enterprises, there was a small shortage of some domestic sales specifications in some enterprises, which had little impact on the overall situation. The restorative increase in the capacity utilization rate of enterprises had a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate [2] - In June, the national passenger car market retailed 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 14, 2025, the RU basis was - 60 yuan/ton (unchanged), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 210 yuan/ton (unchanged), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,870 yuan/ton (an increase of 45.02), the NR basis was 150 yuan/ton (an increase of 17), the price of full - latex was 14,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the STR20 was quoted at 1,745 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 5), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,150 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.29 baht/kg (a decrease of 0.08), the price of Thai latex was 54.30 baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.05 baht/kg (an increase of 0.25), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 6.25 baht/kg (a decrease of 0.25) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.11% (a decrease of 0.42%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.79% (an increase of 1.66%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,342 tons (a decrease of 248), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (an increase of 4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (a decrease of 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (an increase of 7,258) [3] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 14, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (an increase of 40), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,300 yuan/ton (an increase of 100), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,550 yuan/ton (an increase of 50), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 959 yuan/ton (an increase of 1) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54% (a decrease of 1.44%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,270 tons (a decrease of 530), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (an increase of 150) [3]