山东液氯反弹明显，烧碱上行承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously recommend short - selling hedging [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand fundamental, with expected continuous inventory accumulation and room for further compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profit. The caustic soda market has limited continuous rebound space due to the lack of obvious positive drivers in the supply - demand fundamental, although the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has rebounded [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5010 yuan/ton (+30), the East China basis was - 150 yuan/ton (-50), and the South China basis was - 100 yuan/ton (-50) [1] - Spot prices: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4860 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4910 yuan/ton (-20) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 535 yuan/ton (-40), the calcium carbide price was 2850 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 132 yuan/ton (+32), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit was - 445 yuan/ton (+107), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit was - 621 yuan/ton (+74), and the PVC export profit was - 14.8 US dollars/ton (-0.7) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 38.2 tons (-0.5), the social PVC inventory was 39.3 tons (+2.0), the PVC calcium carbide method operating rate was 76.93% (-3.80%), the PVC ethylene method operating rate was 70.23% (+4.77%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 75.07% (-1.43%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 69.0 tons (+3.2) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2532 yuan/ton (+36), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 93 yuan/ton (+27) [1] - Spot prices: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1370 yuan/ton (+40) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1634 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 690.8 yuan/ton (+262.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 410.78 yuan/ton (+52.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1368.33 yuan/ton (+44.80) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 37.43 tons (-0.99), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.36 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operating rate was 80.40% (-0.10%) [2] - Downstream caustic soda operation: The alumina operating rate was 83.28% (+1.72%), the dyeing operating rate in East China was 58.89% (-1.36%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 77.80% (+2.63%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The recent macro - environment has boosted the PVC futures price, but there is no obvious driver in the supply - demand fundamental. The supply pressure has increased due to the restart of some devices and the expected new production capacity in July. The demand is weak, with domestic demand in the off - season and weakening export orders. The cost support is weak, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [3] Caustic Soda - The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has rebounded significantly, the price of liquid caustic soda has increased, and the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has recovered. The supply is expected to remain high, and there is still supply pressure. The demand has some positive signs but lacks obvious positive drivers, and the continuous rebound space may be limited [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously short - sell for hedging, and look bearish on rallies after the macro - sentiment fades [4] - Caustic soda: Adopt a neutral strategy, pay attention to the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine and the resumption progress of production capacity with reduced load [4]