FICC日报：关注中国6月经济数据和美国6月CPI数据-20250715

Market Analysis - The "anti-involution" policy expectations are heating up in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel, and the prices of some commodities are recovering. The comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition can focus on industries like steel, refining, and new energy vehicles [2]. - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience [2]. - In June, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded, mainly driven by some raw material industries. The foundation for domestic economic stabilization still needs to be consolidated [2]. - In late June 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In June, China's social financing increment was 4.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to May [2]. - In June, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year, with faster - growing industries including integrated circuits, ships, and automobiles. Imports increased by 1.1%, with fast - growing items such as zero - accessories of automatic data processing equipment and fresh fruits [2]. - Service consumption is the key to boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, and the main short - board lies in supply [2]. - Small and medium - sized banks need to balance investment returns and risk - taking in bond investments [2]. - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase the US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The US has shifted from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" stage to the "easier to loosen, harder to tighten" policy stage [3]. - The "equivalent tariff" 2.0 phase has officially started, with different tariff increases on countries such as Japan, South Korea, the EU, Canada, and Mexico. Trump also threatened to impose a "unified tariff" on other countries [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [4]. Important News - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. Household loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, and enterprise loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan [6]. - At the end of June, the balance of M2 was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increment of social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6]. - In June, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1%. The trade surplus was $1147.7 billion [6]. - The People's Bank of China stated that it does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through exchange - rate depreciation and will maintain the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [6]. - The yield of Japan's 40 - year government bonds rose 16.5 basis points to 3.49%, and the yield of 20 - year government bonds reached the highest level since 2000 [6].