农产品日报：出栏积极性有所上升，猪价维持震荡-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - In the pig market, with the expectation of increased future supply, the spot price is likely to continue to decline. Entering the seasonal consumption off - season, there is no obvious short - term boost on the demand side. Secondary fattening demand may enter the market when the price drops to around 14 yuan/kg. Policy - related factors such as state reserve purchases and sales and the "anti - involution" policy need attention, as well as supply - side slaughter changes [2] - In the egg market, the current demand remains at a normal level during the off - season. The cold - storage warehousing in northern sales areas has slowed down, and traders are cautious in purchasing. The approaching end of the plum - rain season in southern sales areas and the postponed Mid - Autumn Festival have limited impact on demand. The short - term market pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and farmers will continue to incur losses [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 14,285 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton (- 0.42%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: The price of external ternary live hogs in Henan was 14.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 15.10 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.04 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.90 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.08 yuan/kg. The spot basis in Henan was LH09 + 315, a change of - 40; in Jiangsu, it was LH09 + 815, a change of + 20; in Sichuan, it was LH09 - 385, a change of - 220 [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on July 14: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.02, down 0.33 points from last Friday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.12, down 0.38 points. The average price of pork was 20.60 yuan/kg, unchanged; beef was 63.92 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton was 59.38 yuan/kg, unchanged; eggs were 6.97 yuan/kg, down 0.9%; white - striped chickens were 17.21 yuan/kg, up 1.2% [1] Market Analysis - Due to expected supply increase and the seasonal consumption off - season, the spot price may decline. Secondary fattening may enter the market when the price reaches around 14 yuan/kg. Policy factors and supply - side slaughter changes need to be monitored [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2508 contract yesterday was 3461 yuan/500 kg, a change of + 19 yuan (+ 0.55%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.58 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.22; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.25; in Hebei, it was 2.58 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.07. The spot basis in Liaoning was JD08 - 881, a change of + 201; in Shandong, it was JD08 - 611, a change of + 231; in Hebei, it was JD08 - 881, a change of + 51 [3] - Inventory: On July 14, the national production - link inventory was 0.73 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous trading day; the circulation - link inventory was 0.98 days, a decrease of 0.34 days [3] Market Analysis - The current demand is weak during the off - season. Cold - storage warehousing in northern areas has slowed down, and the approaching end of the plum - rain season and the postponed Mid - Autumn Festival in southern areas have limited impact on demand. The short - term oversupply pattern will continue, and farmers will keep losing money [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]