Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Market trading sentiment has weakened, and downstream factories are cautious in purchasing. Urea production remains high due to few planned maintenance schedules for urea enterprises. Currently in the peak agricultural demand season, agricultural demand continues to progress, the compound fertilizer industry's production has increased, and it is gradually purchasing raw materials for autumn fertilizers, resulting in a temporary increase in urea demand. Industrial demand remains weak, with the melamine industry's production declining month - on - month and the panel industry being sluggish. Urea exports are favorable, with an increasing willingness to gather at ports, leading to a continuous increase in port inventory and a decrease in upstream factory inventory, awaiting the announcement of a new round of export quotas [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On July 14, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,764 yuan/ton (-9). The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Henan was 1,840 yuan/ton (0); in Shandong, it was 1,820 yuan/ton (-40); in Jiangsu, it was 1,840 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was 56 yuan/ton (-31); in Henan, it was 76 yuan/ton (-1); in Jiangsu, it was 76 yuan/ton (-11) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of July 14, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.27% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 96.77 million tons (-5.08). Urea enterprises have few maintenance plans, and production remains at a high level [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On July 14, 2025, the urea production profit was 290 yuan/ton (-40). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 29.83% (+0.58%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.56% (-0.43%) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - On July 14, 2025, the export profit was 879 yuan/ton (+194). Urea exports are favorable, with an increasing willingness to gather at ports, and port inventory is continuously increasing [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of July 14, 2025, the number of pre - received order days for urea enterprises was 5.94 days (+0.58). The compound fertilizer industry is gradually purchasing raw materials for autumn fertilizers, and the demand for urea shows a temporary increase. Industrial demand remains weak, with the melamine industry's production declining month - on - month and the panel industry being sluggish [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 96.77 million tons (-5.08), and the port sample inventory was 48.50 million tons (+4.80). Urea upstream factory inventory is decreasing, and port inventory is increasing [1][2]
市场交投转弱，尿素震荡走低
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-15 05:08