原油价格影响，油脂震荡偏强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Report's Core View - Crude oil prices have reached a three - week high, and concerns about potential US sanctions on Russia may tighten global supply. Coupled with increased Chinese crude oil imports, the stronger crude oil prices drive the plant oils to fluctuate on the strong side [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,748.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +66 yuan (+0.76%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,994.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +8.00 yuan (+0.10%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,424.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -15.00 yuan (-0.16%) [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,770.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +20.00 yuan (+0.23%), and the spot basis was P09 + 22.00, with a daily change of -46.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,140.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -10.00 yuan/ton (-0.12%), and the spot basis was Y09 + 146.00, with a daily change of -18.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,550.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -20.00 yuan (-0.21%), and the spot basis was OI09 + 126.00, with a daily change of -5.00 yuan [1] Market News - India's palm oil imports in June surged 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [2] - As of the end of June, China's broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; narrow money (M1) balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The stock of social financing scale at the end of June 2025 was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2] - As of July 11, 2025 (week 28), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 563,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27,900 tons (5.21%) and a year - on - year increase of 47,300 tons (9.18%); the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1,049,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,700 tons (2.91%) [2] Import Prices - Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) C&F price was 573 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) C&F price was 563 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) C&F price was 1,137 US dollars/ton, up 28 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price was 1,087 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1,040 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,020 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 449 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; US West soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 444 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Brazilian soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 463 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (August shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; US West Coast (August shipment) was 193 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (August shipment) was 253 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]