Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The absolute price of zinc and the basis with the spot market are both weakening. The downstream has carried out rigid - demand restocking due to the decline in the absolute price of the spot market, but the supply in the spot market is still relatively sufficient, and the spot premium continues to be weak. The import ore TC is still on the rise, the smelting profit is still substantial, and the expectation of oversupply in the second half of the year remains unchanged. Although the downstream operating rate shows relative resilience and overall consumption is not bad, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventories are showing an accumulation trend, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. The rapid accumulation of social inventories will suppress zinc prices [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Important Data - Spot Market: The LME zinc spot premium is -$0.36 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 250 yuan/ton to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium dropped by 10 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 250 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, and the SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium dropped by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 240 yuan/ton to 22,140 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium remained flat at -10 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures Market: On July 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,225 yuan/ton and closed at 22,250 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 136,140 lots, an increase of 6,783 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 94,177 lots, a decrease of 13,455 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 22,265 yuan/ton and a low of 22,130 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the same period last week. The LME zinc inventory was 113,400 tons, an increase of 8,150 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply - Side: The import ore TC is still rising, the smelting profit is substantial, and the expectation of oversupply in the second half of the year remains unchanged. The raw material inventory of smelters has increased to 29.7 days, and they have sufficient raw material reserves, so their enthusiasm for purchasing from the ore end is not high [3]. - Demand - Side: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad, but it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Single - Side Trading: Be cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]
绝对价格与现货基差同步走弱
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-15 05:15