新能源及有色金属日报：受交割博弈及消息面扰动，盘面大幅上涨-20250715

Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2509 opened at 64,300 yuan/ton and closed at 66,480 yuan/ton, up 3.71% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,014,558 lots, and the open interest was 356,161 lots, an increase of 33,301 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 600,972 lots, an increase of 9,072 lots. The total trading volume of contracts increased by 4,747 lots to 502,065, and the overall speculation degree was 0.84. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 11,204 lots, a decrease of 399 lots from the previous day [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures showed a strong upward trend yesterday, opening higher, oscillating and surging, with bulls dominating during the session and stabilizing at a high level at the end of the session, finally closing up 3.71% [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 14, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 63,500 - 65,800 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 62,550 - 63,550 yuan/ton, also up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Strategy - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures was mainly affected by news disturbances from Jiangxi's mining end and short - term warehouse receipt cancellations. July warehouse receipts need to be compulsorily cancelled, and there are few newly registered warehouse receipts currently, resulting in significant short - term delivery games, which have a greater impact on near - month contracts. The impact of the Jiangxi mining end disturbance on subsequent mining is not clear, and its short - term impact on supply and demand is relatively limited. Currently, the supply and demand are still relatively loose [2]. - In the medium to long term, there has been no substantial change in the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate, and recent policies have little impact on it. The rebound height should not be overly optimistic. Attention should be paid to the impact of mining end disturbances. If the production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is affected, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate will change [2]. - Unilateral strategy: Wait and see for near - month contracts, and sell and hedge on rallies for far - month contracts. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].