新能源及有色金属日报：Axis矿问题有望解决，但仓单问题犹在-20250715

Group 1: Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views - Aluminum: Seasonal off - peak is evident, downstream开工率 drops, but inventory is at a historically low level. Macro situation is temporarily positive. Aluminum smelting profit expands to 4000 yuan/ton in the off - peak season. A price correction due to inventory accumulation will provide an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions. In the long run, supply is restricted while consumption grows steadily [1][3]. - Alumina: The spot market price rises. Supply is slightly in surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating at the raw material reserve of electrolytic aluminum plants. The low - warehouse receipt problem persists, but the in - transit inventory is increasing. The Axis mine right issue may be resolved, increasing the expectation of mine restart. Alumina smelting profit remains, and the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [4][5]. - Aluminum alloy: It is in the consumption off - peak season. The price follows the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost side supports the price. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract which turns into a peak - season contract [6]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7]. - Arbitrage: Long SHFE aluminum calendar spread, long AD11 short AL11 [7]. Group 2: Key Data 1. Aluminum - Spot price: On July 14, 2025, Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20470 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20330 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20460 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures price: On July 14, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20415 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decline of - 1.45%. The trading volume was 208641 lots, an increase of 88416 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 222489 lots, a decrease of 32657 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - Inventory: As of July 14, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 50.1 tons [1]. 2. Alumina - Spot price: On July 14, 2025, Shanxi alumina price was 3150 yuan/ton, Shandong price was 3140 yuan/ton, Guangxi price was 3250 yuan/ton, and Australian alumina FOB price was 366 dollars/ton [2]. - Futures price: On July 14, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3088 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3145 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decline of - 0.6% [2]. 3. Aluminum alloy - Price: On July 14, 2025, Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 15100 yuan/ton, mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 15300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. ADC12 Baotai quoted price was 19500 yuan/ton, down - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 in East China was - 870 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 3.14 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.25 tons; the in - plant inventory was 7.09 tons, with a weekly decrease of - 0.79 tons; the total inventory was 10.23 tons, with a weekly decrease of - 0.54 tons [2].