关税引发连锁反应仍在继续，铜价震荡偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: Suspended [6] Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a volatile downward trend, mainly due to the widening spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in non-US market copper prices. Domestic copper prices are temporarily suppressed, and domestic social inventories have increased. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On July 14, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,040 yuan/ton and closed at 78,400 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 77,900 yuan/ton and closed at 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the afternoon close [1]. - Spot Situation: The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading was stable. The SMM1 copper was quoted at 78,370 - 78,540 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day. The market supply was sufficient, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery was average. It is expected that today's quotes will remain firm [2]. - Important Information Summary: - Macro and Geopolitical: Trump threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if the Russia-Ukraine conflict agreement is not reached within 50 days, and also impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Brazil will announce counter - tariff measures against the US, and the EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. The European Central Bank will discuss a more negative situation next week [3]. - Mine End: Rio Tinto is optimistic about the US government's push for domestic key mineral production and hopes to increase investment in US copper mining. Mercuria Energy Group and a Zambian state - owned company will ship copper ore for the first time. In Peru, protests by informal miners may affect the production of two major copper mines [3]. - Smelting and Import: As of the week of July 8, the net long position of COMEX copper futures held by funds continued to increase to 39,604 lots. The US tariff policy on imported copper led to a sharp rise in US copper prices and increased fund bulls' confidence [3]. - Consumption: - Copper Rod Enterprises: The operating rate last week rebounded to 67%, but was still lower than expected. It is expected to rise to 74.57% next week, but the actual resumption progress may be less than expected [4]. - Copper Cable Industry: The operating rate reached 71.52%, an unexpected rebound. However, due to terminal capital pressure, it is expected to fall to 70.57% next week [4][5]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 625 tons to 109,625 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 11,072 tons to 34,379 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on July 14 was 14.76 million tons, changing by 0.39 million tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - For copper, it is recommended to take a neutral stance and wait - and - see. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to suspend operations [6].