农产品日报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The September contract of corn showed an increase in positions and an upward trend on Monday, with the futures price closing as a doji with a long lower shadow. After the main contract broke through the support level last week and the futures price dropped rapidly, it was significantly at a discount to the spot price. This situation attracted buying on Monday, driving the futures price to rebound. However, the spot price of corn in the Northeast and North China continued to decline over the weekend, and the market supply was relatively loose. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the price pressure in the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 for the September contract, and consider short - selling after the rebound ends [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean meal and soybeans closed lower on Monday as the market expected good growth of US soybeans. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans increased to 70%, 4 percentage points higher than last week, and higher than the market expectation of 67% and 68% in the same period last year. The market expects the US soybean crush volume in June to drop to a four - month low of 185.195 million bushels, a 4% month - on - month decrease. Domestically, the protein meal prices rose under the general upward trend of commodities, with rapeseed meal rising more than soybean meal. The operation idea is to maintain a long position in the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads of soybean meal [1]. - Palm Oil: BMD palm oil rose on Monday, following the upward trend of the surrounding markets. The weakening of the Malaysian ringgit and the international oil price reaching a three - week high provided support. Domestically, the futures price of palm oil continued to rise, and the increase in palm oil and soybean oil was better than that of rapeseed oil. The market is mainly in a volatile state, and it is recommended to conduct intraday trading on a single - side basis [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures fluctuated and adjusted on Monday. After the egg price dropped to a new low this year last week, the terminal demand increased, boosting the short - term spot price to rebound from the low level. After the price rebound, the demand became stable. In the future, after the plum - rain season ends, eggs will gradually enter the peak demand season of the year, but considering the pressure on the egg price from the supply side, the expected peak price will be lower than that of last year [1]. - Pigs: The main 2509 contract of live pigs weakened in the morning and rebounded slightly at a low level in the afternoon on Monday, finally closing down 0.42%. The downstream demand was weak, and factors such as high temperatures and school holidays led to a significant decline in the slaughter volume of slaughterhouses. The pig price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - On July 13, the EU and Indonesia reached a political agreement on promoting the EU - Indonesia Free Trade Agreement, which is regarded as an effort by the EU to find a new balance in the global trade pattern [3]. - India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [3]. - Analysts expect the US soybean crush volume in June to drop to a four - month low of 185.195 million bushels, and the soybean oil inventory of NOPA members is expected to be 1.374 billion pounds [3]. - In the first half of this year, the decline in the import prices of crude oil, iron ore, and soybeans in China pulled down the overall import growth rate by 2.7 percentage points [4]. - The Chinese and US teams are accelerating the implementation of the results of the London framework, and China hopes that the US will continue to cooperate with China to promote the global trade system to return to fairness and openness [4]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - Contract spreads: The report provides charts of the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of the spreads is given [5][6][8] - Contract basis: The report provides charts of the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of the basis is given [13][14][20]