Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 14, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 3.71% to 66,480 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 900 yuan/ton to 64,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose 900 yuan/ton to 63,050 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 399 tons to 11,204 tons [3]. - Affected by the news from Yichun Natural Resources Bureau, market sentiment was influenced. In July, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase by 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons. The increase is mainly from lithium extraction from spodumene, followed by lithium extraction from mica. The exports of lithium salts from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July are expected to change little month-on-month. In terms of demand, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. The weekly inventory increased by 2,446 tons to 140,793 tons, with a significant increase in the intermediate links [3]. - The news hype affects market sentiment, the warehouse receipts remain at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced shutdowns for maintenance and technological transformation, and there are many disturbances in the market news, which stimulate the price to rise in the short term. However, hedging pressure will follow. As of now, there are no signs of production cuts at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salt is relatively high. Attention can still be paid to short-selling opportunities after the sentiment turns. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of the price, and the price may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 66,480 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 66,200 yuan/ton, up 3,280 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 682 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 890 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,450 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 4,650 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 5,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 64,650 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 63,050 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan [5]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 57,420 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) remained at 62,570 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) remained at 51,970 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) remained at 8 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 50,550 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,600 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 900 yuan to - 7,230 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 13 yuan to - 227.2 yuan [5]. - Precursors & Cathode Materials: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) remained at 75,405 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) remained at 75,860 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) remained at 71,470 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) remained at 89,795 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased by 200 yuan to 106,360 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) increased by 100 yuan to 115,255 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) remained at 111,070 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) remained at 142,880 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 220 yuan to 31,275 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to high - end energy storage) increased by 215 yuan to 29,845 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased by 210 yuan to 27,590 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate (power type) remained at 32,250 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) increased by 250 yuan to 29,250 yuan/ton; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) remained at 220,400 yuan/ton [5]. - Cells & Batteries: The price of 523 square ternary cells remained at 0.383 yuan/Wh; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained at 0.4 yuan/Wh; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased by 0.01 yuan to 4.31 yuan/piece; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained at 0.321 yuan/Wh; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) remained at 0.33 yuan/Wh; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased by 0.01 yuan to 5.52 yuan/Ah; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 0.001 yuan to 0.3 yuan/Wh [5] 2. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [12][14][16] - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [19][20][21] - Precursors & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29] - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [37][39] - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [41][42]
光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250715
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 05:16