Group 1 - The investment rating of the industry is not mentioned in the report. - The core view of the report is that on July 14, the industrial silicon futures contract 2509 closed at 8,695 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.27%, and the open interest increased by 35,078 lots to 403,000 lots. The reference price of the industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 8,938 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade silicon increased to 8,500 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a discount to a premium of 435 yuan/ton. The polysilicon futures contract 2508 closed at 42,090 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.81%, and the open interest decreased by 7,597 lots to 78,328 lots. The SMM price of N-type polysilicon feedstock rose to 41,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon feedstock rose to 41,500 yuan/ton, with the spot shifting from a premium to a discount of 265 yuan/ton to the front-month contract. Market news indicates that Xinjiang may cancel subsidized electricity prices and major manufacturers may not resume production, causing the price of industrial silicon to continue rising due to increased costs. However, there are many market disagreements, limited overall market transmission, and high difficulty in sustaining the upward trend. The strategy of shorting at the upper end of the trading range can be continued. Guided by policies, the confidence of the photovoltaic industry chain to support prices has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved, and market transactions are almost stagnant. Futures follow the spot prices and are more driven by speculative demand. In the short term, the market is filled with true and false news, increasing the volatility of the trading volume and the risk of unilateral trading [2] Group 2 - On July 14, the industrial silicon futures settlement price for the front-month contract decreased by 400 yuan/ton, the price of the 421 grade silicon increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a discount of 65 yuan/ton to a premium of 435 yuan/ton. The price of the front-month contract for polysilicon futures decreased by 5,535 yuan/ton, the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon feedstock remained unchanged at 41,500 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium of 170 yuan/ton to a discount of 265 yuan/ton. The price of dimethyl silicone oil in the organic silicon market increased by 2,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of other products remained unchanged. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 4,800 tons, and the inventory of polysilicon increased to 274,000 tons [4]. Group 3 - The report includes various price charts and data comparisons of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and organic silicon, covering aspects such as prices, inventories, and cost-profit analysis. The price charts are divided into four categories: industrial silicon and cost, downstream products, inventory, and cost-profit [5][13][22]. - The price charts for industrial silicon and its cost include prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - The price charts for downstream products include prices of DMC, silicone products, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - The inventory charts cover industrial silicon and polysilicon inventories in different locations and warehouses, as well as total social inventories [4]. - The cost-profit charts analyze the cost and profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and organic silicon in different regions and production locations [28][36].
光大期货工业硅日报-20250715
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 05:15