光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [1] Core Views - Urea futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to a lack of substantial positive drivers in the domestic market, with attention on daily production changes, spot trading, and overall market sentiment [1] - Soda ash futures prices are recommended to be treated with a bullish oscillating approach, as market sentiment has improved but fundamental drivers remain weak, and focus should be on supply levels, downstream production, macro sentiment, and overall market sentiment [1] - In the short term, glass futures prices may continue their bullish trend, but industry supply - demand contradictions are difficult to fundamentally change, and investors should be cautious about this rise, paying attention to overall market sentiment, the macro - environment, and production policies [1] Summary by Directory Research Views - Urea: On Monday, the urea futures price oscillated weakly, with the main 09 contract closing at 1764 yuan/ton, a slight 0.64% decline. The spot market also weakened, with mainstream regional prices dropping by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. Supply decreased slightly to 19.53 tons per day, and demand sentiment weakened, with most mainstream regions' spot sales - to - production ratios between 30% - 40%. Export news will continue to have an impact, but the domestic market lacks positive drivers [1] - Soda Ash: On Monday, the soda ash futures price oscillated weakly at first and then rose rapidly. The main 09 contract closed up 1.31% at 1241 yuan/ton. The spot market was mostly stable, with some regional prices still falling. The transaction price in the Hebei region for heavy soda ash increased by 14 yuan/ton to 1221 yuan/ton. Supply increased, with the industry's operating rate rising to 84.76%. Demand was average, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, but recent market sentiment improvement led to some demand release [1] - Glass: On Monday, the glass futures price oscillated widely at first and then rose rapidly. The main 09 contract closed at 1102 yuan/ton, a 1.1% increase. The spot market was stable, with the average domestic float glass price at 1174 yuan/ton, and some regions seeing a 10 - 20 yuan/ton increase. Glass daily melting remained stable at 15.84 tons, and demand sentiment improved recently, with most mainstream regions' spot sales - to - production ratios above 90% and Hubei's reaching 150% [1] Market Information - Urea: On July 14, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 2630, a decrease of 15 from the previous day, and the valid forecasts were 0. The industry's daily production was 19.53 tons, a decrease of 0.13 tons from the previous workday but an increase of 1.80 tons compared to the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 84.34%, a 2.46 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. Small - particle urea spot prices in various domestic regions decreased, with Shandong at 1820 yuan/ton (- 40), Henan at 1840 yuan/ton (- 10), etc [4] - Soda Ash & Glass: On July 14, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 3394, a decrease of 70 from the previous day, with valid forecasts of 576; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 797, unchanged from the previous day. Soda ash spot prices varied by region. The industry's operating rate was 84.76%, up from 82.58% the previous workday. The average price of the float glass market was 1174 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the industry's daily production was 15.84 tons, also unchanged [6][7] Resource品团队研究成员介绍 - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, with multiple awards in relevant fields [21] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, glass, etc., and has won many industry awards [21] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, ferroalloys, etc., and has won relevant honors [21]