聚烯烃日报：市场淡季延续，聚烯烃震荡走低-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market off - season continues, and polyolefins fluctuate downward. Downstream demand remains in the off - season, with low terminal operating rates, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and there is little hope of short - term improvement. The upstream petrochemical plants are in the maintenance season, with a slight increase in maintenance enterprises, a decline in capacity utilization, and continuous release of new capacity, so the overall supply maintains an incremental trend. Enterprises' inventories accumulate, and the destocking rate is slow. International oil prices rebound slightly, propane prices remain weak, and the overall cost support remains weak, while the profit of PDH - made PP remains slightly profitable [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7284元/吨（-7），PP主力合约收盘价为7067元/吨（-2），LL华北现货为7200元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7100元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为 - 84元/吨（-13），LL华东基差为 - 14元/吨（+7），PP华东基差为33元/吨（-18） [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为77.8%（-1.7%），PP开工率为76.6%（-0.8%）；PE油制生产利润为83.4元/吨（-125.8），PP油制生产利润为 - 306.6元/吨（-125.8），PDH制PP生产利润为231.2元/吨（+24.6） [1] 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 133.3元/吨（+8.4），PP进口利润为 - 628.4元/吨（-1.2），PP出口利润为28.8美元/吨（+0.2） [1] 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.6%（+0.5%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.1%（-0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.0%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.6%（+0.3%） [1] 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text