有色商品日报（2025年7月15日）-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, falling 0.2% to $9,643.5 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell 0.34%. The market is worried about the intensification of trade conflicts. Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st has caused market discussions. From the price difference between US copper and LME copper, the market has priced in 25%. In the short - term, copper may still be weak, and the implementation of the 50% copper tariff will cause strong price fluctuations [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. Guinea's implementation of the bauxite index has raised concerns about cost expansion. In the short - term, the near - month contracts will continue to be strong, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 20,000 range. The off - season effect of aluminum alloy is more obvious [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 1.12%, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.08%. The Indonesian government will evaluate the work plans and budgets of the mining and coal industries. The cost support of stainless steel has shifted down slightly, and the overall inventory remains high. The demand for nickel sulfate in July has increased slightly month - on - month. In the short - term, it will still fluctuate, and be vigilant against overseas policy disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Macroscopically, overseas focuses on tariffs, and some economies have made counter - measures. Domestically, China's June social financing and export data are positive. In terms of inventory, LME, Comex, and domestic social inventories have all increased. The demand is still weak due to the off - season. The 50% copper tariff may cause price fluctuations [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina prices rose, while Shanghai aluminum prices were weak. The implementation of the bauxite index in Guinea and the low inventory support the price. The off - season effect of aluminum alloy is obvious [1][2]. - Nickel: LME and SHFE nickel prices fell. The Indonesian government's evaluation of the industry and the decline in nickel ore prices have an impact on the market. The cost of stainless steel has decreased, and the demand for nickel sulfate has increased slightly [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the inventory of LME, COMEX, and social inventory increased. The import loss of the active contract widened [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory of LME and SHFE increased [3]. - Aluminum: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory of alumina increased [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased [4]. - Zinc: The main settlement price and spot price decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased [5]. - Tin: The main settlement price increased slightly, and the inventory of LME increased while SHFE decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience [51]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon [50][51]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst focusing on lithium and nickel [52].