化工日报：下游MTO检修仍等待兑现-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the PP01 - 3MA01 spread when it is high [3] Core Viewpoints - Overseas methanol production is operating at a high level, and the pressure of methanol arriving at Chinese ports remains high, leading to a stockpiling cycle at ports. The Xingxing MTO maintenance plan is yet to be implemented. If it is carried out smoothly, port demand will be further affected. Although the short - term situation at ports is weak, the market expects a significant scale of overseas gas - based methanol maintenance in the fourth quarter, which makes the long - term outlook optimistic [2] - In the inland region, short - term maintenance of inland coal - based methanol has led to a decline in supply. Although the formaldehyde in traditional downstream industries is in a seasonal off - season, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable. The demand in the inland region remains resilient, and the inventory rebuilding rate of inland methanol factories is still slow. The inland market is stronger than the port market [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents figures related to methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) compared with the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][28][29] III. Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures display regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc [37][44] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][51]