二季度金融数据：金融周期先行

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In the first half of the year, social financing increased by approximately 47,351 billion yuan year-on-year, with RMB loans increasing by 2,796 billion yuan and government bonds increasing by 43,100 billion yuan[1] - As of June, M0 increased by 12.0% year-on-year, M1 by 4.6%, and M2 by 8.3%, with the gap between M1 and M2 growth narrowing to -3.7 percentage points[1] - The balance of RMB deposits in June grew by 8.3% year-on-year, with household deposits increasing by 10.8% and non-financial enterprise deposits by 3.6%[1] Group 2: Social Financing Structure - The social financing balance in June increased by 8.9% year-on-year, with government bonds growing by 21.3% and contributing 0.1 percentage points to the growth rate[2] - RMB loan growth stabilized at 7.0% year-on-year, contributing 0.01 percentage points to the social financing growth rate[2] - The balance of corporate bonds increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while trust loans grew by 5.5%[2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations and Risks - The financial cycle may lead the economic cycle, with M1 and M2 growth rates stabilizing and financial markets showing signs of stability[3] - Attention should be paid to monetary policy operations, financial market changes, and price movements during this phase[3] - Risks include potential changes in policy rhythm and insufficient monetary transmission effects[4]