广金期货策略早餐-20250715

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Pork: In the short - term, the price will fluctuate within a narrow range; in the medium - term, it shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Suggest selling at high prices [1][2]. - Sugar: In the short - term, it will have a small rebound; in the medium - term, it will rise first and then fall. Suggest selling at high prices [3][4]. - Crude Oil: In the short - term, it will oscillate upwards; in the medium - term, it will face pressure. Suggest selling out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil [5][7]. - PVC: In the short - term, it will oscillate within the range of 4900 - 5100; in the medium - term, the upside space is limited. Suggest shorting after the upward trend ends [8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - Supply: There is a theoretical low point in supply from July to August, but long - term supply remains high. From October 2024 to March 2025, the number of new piglets increased by 7% year - on - year, and the supply pressure from April to September 2025 will increase [1]. - Demand: As of July 11, the slaughtering start - up rate was 25.06%, slightly lower than the previous week. Terminal consumption is weak [1]. - Outlook: There may be a price increase from July to August, but the high point may be lower than last year. In the fourth quarter, the price may fall, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [2]. Sugar - International: Overseas macro factors cause disturbances. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 420 million tons [3]. - Domestic: The sales progress is fast. The spot price has increased, and inventory is decreasing. The estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar is positive [4]. - Outlook: Zhengzhou sugar will follow the small rebound of raw sugar. In the medium - term, the price increase is limited, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [4]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production in August by 548,000 barrels per day and may further increase by about 550,000 barrels per day on August 3. The U.S. production growth will slow down in the long - term [5][6]. - Demand: In the U.S., the refinery start - up rate has approached 95%, and gasoline demand has exceeded 9 million barrels per day. In China, the main refinery start - up rate is at a five - year high, while the local refinery profit is low [6]. - Inventory: U.S. crude oil inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and it will accumulate at the end of the third quarter [7]. - Outlook: In the short - term, there is upward momentum; in the medium - term, it will face pressure [7]. PVC - Cost: The impact of power restrictions in the northwest has weakened, and the supply of calcium carbide has increased [8]. - Supply: The industry start - up rate has decreased slightly, but new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year [8]. - Demand: Domestic demand is expected to weaken, and export orders are decreasing [9]. - Inventory: As of July 11, the social inventory was 392,700 tons, a 5.25% increase from the previous week [9]. - Outlook: The current price increase is mainly due to improved macro sentiment, but the upward momentum is limited [9].