蛋白数据日报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA July report was bearish, raising the U.S. soybean inventory digestion rate to 7.1% and the global soybean inventory digestion rate to 20.57%. Despite this, the short - term weather in the U.S. soybean - growing areas is normal for growth. With the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, domestic soybean crushing in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September. The buying of soybeans from October to January is slow. On the demand side, the short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, and the high cost - performance of soybean meal increases its proportion in feed, with high - level提货. However, wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein consumption. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased at low prices. Overall, the soybean meal inventory continues to rise, but the accumulation speed has slowed down slightly. The short - term inventory pressure is expected to keep the spot basis oscillating at a low level. The M01 contract is recommended to be bought on dips as the import cost is expected to support it [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Basis Data - For the soybean meal main - contract basis (Zhangjiagang), the Dalian value was - 52 with a change of - 36 on July 14. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was - 162 with a change of - 16. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 119 with a change of - 6 [6]. b. Spread Data - The M9 - M1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and盘面 spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong are presented, with specific values such as M9 - 1 being - 29, M9 - RM9 being 10, RM9 - 1 being 355, the spot spread (Guangdong) of soybean meal - rapeseed meal being 333, and the盘面 spread (main) being 260 [7]. c. International Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium, the U.S. dollar - RMB exchange rate, and the盘面 profit of imported soybeans are shown. For example, the Brazilian soybean CNF premium is 74.00 (in cents per bushel), the exchange rate is 7.1693, and the盘面 profit of imported soybeans is 268 yuan/ton [7]. d. Inventory Data - Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are provided, showing trends from 2020 - 2025. Currently, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal is in an inventory - accumulation cycle, with the feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days increasing [7][8]. e.开机 and压榨情况 - Data on the major oil - mill soybean crushing volume and开机 rate from 2020 - 2025 are presented, indicating the开机 and crushing situation in the industry [7]. f. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The USDA July report was bearish, but short - term weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas is favorable. Brazilian soybean arrivals will lead to high - volume domestic crushing in July and August, with inventory - accumulation pressure until September and slow buying from October to January. - Demand: High inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, high cost - performance of soybean meal increases its proportion in feed, but wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein consumption. Recent low - price trading volume of soybean meal has increased [7][8].