航运衍生品数据日报-20250715

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market shows an oscillating upward trend. The recent strength is mainly affected by the tariff extension and Maersk's better - than - expected cabin opening. The cargo shipment from the Far East to the United States will continue for some time, which is beneficial for August. The decline amplitude from the high point in August is expected to slow down, thus the discount is repaired. Today, long - position holders shifted their positions. With the new round of peace talks in Gaza on the verge of collapse and the increasing possibility of a summit between Chinese and US leaders, as the freight rate of the 08 contract is gradually determined and the range becomes clearer, it follows the delivery logic, and the 10 - contract gradually replaces the 08 - contract as the main contract and takes over the main role of the expected logic [8]. - In late July, the spot market basically followed the situation in the first half of the month. The average values of different alliances were around 3200 - 3500. Maersk's quotations were higher than the market's expectation of a decline starting from the third week, so the main contract performed strongly. The market on the disk oscillated upward this week due to Maersk's flat or higher - than - expected prices in the third and fourth weeks of July. The main contract repaired from a deep - discount state, but the upward trend is expected to be limited. Shipping companies may have the habit of announcing price increases in August, but the actual implementation will face great supply - side pressure [9]. - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [10]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), and other sub - indexes are 1733, 1314, etc. The changes from the previous values are - 1.71%, - 2.18%, etc. For example, SCFI - US West increased by 5.03%, while SCFIS - US West decreased by 18.69%, and SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased by 7.22% [4]. - Contract: The current values of contracts such as EC2506, EC2508 are 1382.2, 2027.2, etc. The changes from the previous values are 3.78%, - 0.17%, etc. For example, EC2510 increased by 4.25%, and EC2512 increased by 2.57% [4]. - Position: The current positions of EC2606, EC2508 are 567, 27891, etc. The changes from the previous values are 60, - 1009, etc. For example, the position of EC2410 increased by 3971 [4]. - Monthly Spread: The current values of spreads such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2 are 586.5, - 139.8, etc. The changes from the previous values are - 62.1, 19.1, etc. For example, the 12 - 4 spread increased by 13.1 [4]. International News - Israel has protests demanding a hostage agreement. Israel accepted a 60 - day cease - fire and hostage - release draft proposed by Qatar, but Hamas rejected it. The core of the deadlock lies in the map parameters of the Israeli army's withdrawal from Gaza. Israel will propose a new map plan next Monday [5]. - The Israeli Defense Minister said that if Iran threatens Israel, Israel will strike Iran again [6]. - Russian President Putin is privately urging Iran to accept a "zero enrichment" nuclear agreement in exchange for the possibility of a new nuclear agreement with the US [6]. - The US imposed a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, escalating trade tensions [6]. - The Philippine government ordered shipping agencies to avoid the Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea due to attacks on commercial ships. The Philippines supplies about 35% of the world's seafarers and takes measures to protect its nationals [7]. - US Secretary of State Rubio said that the possibility of a summit between US President Trump and China is high after meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi [7].