2025年6月金融数据点评：社融信贷增长超预期，企业融资需求改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The social financing (社融) growth exceeded expectations, with June's new social financing reaching 4.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan. The total social financing stock grew by 8.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.2 percentage points [4]. - The demand for financing is showing signs of improvement, with both corporate and household credit increasing. The total RMB loans increased by 2.36 trillion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 171 billion yuan, marking a positive contribution to social financing growth [4]. - The report highlights that government bonds continue to be a major contributor to social financing growth, with new government bonds issued amounting to 1.35 trillion yuan in June, a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan [4]. - The M1 and M2 money supply indicators showed significant recovery, with M1 growing by 4.6% year-on-year and M2 by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating improved liquidity in the financial system [4]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Overview - In June, the new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan. The total stock of social financing grew by 8.9% year-on-year [4]. - The government bond issuance in June was approximately 2.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 818 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [4]. Credit Demand - By the end of June, the balance of RMB loans from financial institutions grew by 7.1% year-on-year. The new loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion yuan [4]. - Household loans increased by 597.6 billion yuan, with short-term loans rising by 262.1 billion yuan, driven by consumption demand during promotional events [4]. Money Supply and Liquidity - M1 and M2 growth rates were 4.6% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with month-on-month increases of 2.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points [4]. - Financial institutions' RMB deposits increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with a monthly increase of 750 billion yuan in June [4].