政策与大类资产配置周观察：“对等关税”再临，TACO面临考验

Policy and Macro Analysis - The report highlights the increasing internationalization of Chinese enterprises, emphasizing their importance to domestic economic development as stated by Premier Li Qiang during a meeting with Chinese companies in Brazil [11] - The U.S. has initiated a new round of tariff pressures, threatening high tariffs on 25 countries if they do not comply with U.S. demands by August 1 [19][24] - The report notes that the U.S. tariffs vary significantly by country, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff, while other countries like Japan and South Korea face tariffs of 25% [23] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares have shown a positive trend, with major indices like the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index rising nearly 2% in the past week, influenced by the U.S.-China discussions [4][27] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 24.119 billion yuan during the second week of July, indicating strong investor interest [27] - The MSCI China A-share Index increased by 1.06% during the same period, reflecting overall market optimism [27] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China has signaled a commitment to increasing monetary easing, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan in open market operations last week [47] - The DR007 rate remained low, dropping to 1.46% on July 8, indicating a relaxed liquidity environment [47] Commodity Market Analysis - The report notes a decline in non-ferrous metals prices, while crude oil has seen a slight recovery, and precious metals have rebounded [5] - The IEA has reported that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year, impacting commodity pricing strategies [5] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index has shown slight strengthening, closing at 97.87, while the Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.17 against the dollar [5] - The report indicates that the continuous increase in foreign exchange reserves and the expansion of gold reserves by the central bank reflect a stable financial strategy [5] Major Asset Rotation Outlook - The report suggests a cautious approach to asset rotation in July, emphasizing the need to prevent overheating in the market [5] - It anticipates further fiscal expansion and moderate monetary easing to address potential uncertainties from U.S. trade policies and geopolitical risks [5]