BOCOM International·2025-07-15 08:17Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, JD US, with a target price of $40.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.9% from the current price of $30.80 [4][11][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's second-quarter losses from its food delivery segment are expected to exceed RMB 10 billion, leading to a 60% year-on-year decline in overall profits. However, retail performance remains stable, suggesting that the company is at a valuation bottom [2][8]. - The profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to RMB 26 billion, with the target price adjusted from $50 to $40 [2][8]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the food delivery unit economics (UE) in the third quarter, although losses may widen due to increased order volume. A recovery in losses is expected in the fourth quarter [2][8]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 1,295,593 million, reflecting a 1.3% decrease from previous estimates. The growth rate is expected to be 11.8% [3][14]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 26,002 million, down 43.7% from prior estimates [3][14]. - The report provides detailed revenue breakdowns, including product sales and service revenues, with specific figures for each category [3][14]. Market Performance - The company’s market capitalization is approximately $41.63 billion, with a 52-week high of $47.08 and a low of $24.95 [6][14]. - Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 11.16% [6][14]. Operational Metrics - The report indicates that the company’s retail segment is expected to grow by 14% year-on-year, with a stable operating profit margin [8][14]. - The average daily active users (MAU) of the JD app have seen a year-on-year increase of 30-40%, indicating strong user engagement [8][14].