中信期货晨报：国内商品期货大面积飘红，碳酸锂领涨期市-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For major domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of breaking the "involution" on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, focus on the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Movements - Domestic Financial Markets: Stock index futures (including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures) showed slight daily declines, while bond futures (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) also generally declined. The US dollar index remained unchanged, and the US dollar intermediate price had a 16 - pip increase. Interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate and the 10Y Chinese government bond yield had minor fluctuations [2][4]. - Domestic Commodities: In the non - ferrous metals sector, lithium carbonate led the increase with a daily increase of 3.42%. Industrial silicon also rose by 3.33%. In the black metals sector, iron ore increased by 0.33%, and coke by 0.36%. In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil increased by 2.65%, and low - sulfur fuel oil by 1.48% [2][4]. - Overseas Commodities: In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose by 2.81%, and ICE Brent crude oil by 2.54%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX silver increased by 3.85%. In the non - ferrous metals sector, LME copper decreased by 0.20% [3][4]. - Hot Industries: The pharmaceutical industry rose by 1.82%, the comprehensive financial industry by 1.74%, and the non - ferrous metals industry by 1.44%. The real estate industry decreased by 0.25%, the power and public utilities industry by 0.27%, and the building materials industry by 0.34% [3][4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the US on most economies have been announced, with most rates being lowered except for Japan and Malaysia, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties. In May, the US wholesale sales and inventory monthly rates were both - 0.3%. In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0%. The employment market has hidden concerns, and the "Big and Beautiful" Act will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [7]. - Domestic Macro: In June, China's export volume increased slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The export to the US recovered, and the "anti - involution" policy affected domestic demand - oriented commodities [7]. 3.3 Viewpoints on Various Asset Classes - Macro: Overseas stagflation trading has cooled down, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term [9]. - Financial: The sentiment in the stock market has recovered, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures will continue a moderate upward trend, stock index options should be treated with caution, and bond futures have a weakening sentiment [9]. - Precious Metals: The risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment [9]. - Shipping: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June [9]. - Black Building Materials: The market sentiment leads, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all in a volatile state [9]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: The game of reciprocal tariffs and the expectation of domestic policy stimulus have led to a stop in the decline of non - ferrous metals. Most varieties are in a volatile state, with zinc and nickel showing short - term strength but with potential downward risks [9]. - Energy and Chemicals: OPEC+ has increased production unexpectedly, and the energy and chemical sector is weakly volatile. Most varieties are in a volatile state, with some showing upward or downward trends [12]. - Agriculture: The capital sentiment has quickly pushed up the rubber price. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, with some showing upward or downward trends [12].