铜日报：铜显性库存累增施压，弱势震荡延续-20250715

Group 1: Report Summary - The copper market is expected to remain weak in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with prices likely to fluctuate in the range of RMB 76,000 - 79,000 per ton, mainly due to weak demand, ample supply, and macro - level factors such as US tariff policies and potential delays in Fed rate cuts. [34] Group 2: Market Data Changes Sub - group 1: Main Contracts and Basis - On July 14, the SHFE copper price dropped to RMB 78,330 per ton, a decrease of RMB 140 from July 11. The LME price also declined, and the LME (0 - 3) basis widened, indicating short - term supply surplus. The premium of premium copper remained at RMB 0, and the discount of flat - copper remained at RMB - 50, suggesting weak spot demand. The discount of wet - copper narrowed, possibly indicating improved supply. [2][33] Sub - group 2: Position and Trading Volume - On July 14, the LME copper inventory soared to 34,379 tons, a significant increase of 11,000 tons from July 11, with a growth rate of 47.5%. The SHFE inventory also increased, but at a slower rate of 0.83%. The accumulation of inventory is bearish for copper prices. [3][33] Group 3: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Sub - group 1: Supply - China's copper concentrate imports in June decreased by 1.9% month - on - month but increased by 6.4% year - to - date, indicating overall growth in imports. The CSPT meeting decided not to set a reference processing fee for Q3, which may reflect tightness at the mine end and pressure on smelting profits, potentially leading to smelter production cuts. The 50% tariff on imported copper in the US may disrupt the supply chain, especially affecting Chile's exports. The suspension of production by Canada's Hudbay Minerals due to wildfires may temporarily reduce supply, but the impact is minor. [4][34] Sub - group 2: Demand - Domestic downstream restocked when copper prices rebounded but then reduced purchases, indicating unstable demand. Spot market transactions in Shandong and North China were light, with downstream being cautious before the contract change, mainly driven by rigid demand. This may suggest insufficient terminal demand, especially in the power and construction sectors. [5][34] Sub - group 3: Inventory - The continuous accumulation of LME and SHFE inventories, especially the significant increase in LME inventory, along with the rising COMEX inventory, indicates an increase in global visible inventory, strengthening the expectation of a supply - abundant market, which is unfavorable for prices. [6][34]