原油、燃料油日报：美国对俄罗斯能源制裁持续扰动市场-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Crude oil prices may show a structural divergence, with SC crude remaining strong relative to the external market and the overseas market fluctuating at high levels. The strengthening of SC crude premium is mainly due to RMB exchange - rate fluctuations, domestic refinery restocking expectations, OPEC+’s cautious approach to production increases, and risks of Russian supply disruptions. In the overseas market, the stable Brent - WTI spread reflects the supply - demand balance in the Atlantic Basin, but geopolitical conflicts may support the Brent price, while the potential for US shale oil production increase limits the upside of WTI. Attention should be paid to the potential supply - disruption expectation gap after the implementation of US sanctions against Russia and the verification of Asia - Pacific demand based on the actual fulfillment of China's import data. [4] - Medium - term: If OPEC+’s actual production increase lags behind demand recovery, oil prices still face upward risks, but the macro - level US dollar trend and the escalation of trade frictions may intensify price fluctuations. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - On July 14, the price of the SC crude oil main contract closed at 527.5 yuan/barrel, up 13.6 yuan (+2.65%) from July 11. The intraday fluctuation range widened to 510.7 - 527.5 yuan/barrel, indicating increased market divergence. WTI and Brent crude oil prices remained stable at 68.75 dollars/barrel and 70.63 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread significantly strengthened, expanding from 1.03 dollars/barrel to 2.95 dollars/barrel, and the SC crude oil contract's near - month to third - month spread widened from 21.9 yuan/barrel to 26.0 yuan/barrel (+18.72%), suggesting an enhanced short - term market expectation of spot tightness. [2] b. Supply - Chain, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply: On July 14, the OPEC Secretary - General stated that OPEC+ is increasing production to meet the "very strong" demand expected in the third quarter, but emphasized a possible supply - demand tight balance in the coming months. The expectation of the US to escalate sanctions against Russia has raised concerns in the European market about restricted Russian oil supply, pushing Brent crude oil to break through 71 dollars/barrel during intraday trading. [3] - Demand: China's June import data is expected to improve, with the US - dollar - denominated import annual rate expected to rise from the previous - 3.4% to 1.3%. The news that the US may provide additional weapons to Ukraine has increased the geopolitical risk premium in Eastern Europe, potentially boosting the demand for crude oil as a strategic reserve. [3] - Inventory: China's crude oil futures warrants (including medium - sulfur crude oil) remained unchanged at 451.7 million barrels, low - sulfur fuel oil warrants were only 90 tons, and fuel oil warrants were 91,600 tons, all unchanged from the previous period, indicating no pressure on hidden inventories in the Asia - Pacific region. The change in US commercial crude oil inventories still depends on subsequent EIA data, but the expected release of strategic reserves may limit the bullish impact on the inventory side. [3] 2. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures Prices: On July 14, the SC crude oil futures price was 527.5 yuan/barrel, up 13.6 yuan (+2.65%) from July 11. WTI was 65.65 dollars/barrel, down 3.1 dollars (-4.51%), and Brent was 69.14 dollars/barrel, down 1.49 dollars (-2.11%). [6] - Spot Prices: Various spot prices showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the Oman spot price rose by 2.03 dollars (+2.89%), while the Brent spot price fell by 0.97 dollars (-1.33%). [6] - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread expanded from 1.03 dollars/barrel to 4.44 dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread from 2.91 dollars/barrel to 7.93 dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread from 1.88 dollars/barrel to 3.49 dollars/barrel. [6] - Other Assets: The US dollar index rose 0.25 points (+0.26%), the S&P 500 rose 8.81 points (+0.14%), the DAX index fell 94.67 points (-0.39%), and the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged. [6] b. Fuel Oil - Futures Prices: The FU futures price was 2,922 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan (+0.38%); the LU futures price was 3,694 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan (+1.48%); the NYMEX fuel oil price was 238.07 cents/gallon, down 8.53 cents (-3.46%). [7] - Spot Prices: Different fuel oil spot prices also showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the MDO price in Rotterdam rose by 9 dollars (+1.79%), while the IF0380 price in Singapore fell by 18 dollars (-4.29%). [7] - Paper Prices: The high - sulfur 180 paper price in Singapore (near - month) was 421.69 dollars/ton, up 0.25 dollars (+0.06%), and the high - sulfur 380 paper price in Singapore (near - month) was 411.99 dollars/ton, down 0.25 dollars (-0.06%). [7] - Spreads: The China high - low sulfur spread expanded from 729 yuan/ton to 772 yuan/ton, and the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased from - 2,032 yuan/ton to - 1,978 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - On July 14, OPEC Secretary - General Haitham Al Ghais said that OPEC and its allies are increasing oil production, expecting "very strong" oil demand in the third quarter, followed by a tight supply - demand balance in the following months. China's June import data is expected to improve. [8][9] b. Demand - OPEC expects "very strong" oil demand in the third quarter, with a tight supply - demand balance in the coming months. China's June export data is expected to improve, with the US - dollar - denominated export annual rate expected to rise from 4.8% to 5%. [10] c. Inventory - Fuel oil futures warrants were 91,640 tons, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warrants were 90 tons, and medium - sulfur crude oil futures warrants were 4,517,000 barrels, all unchanged from the previous day. [11] d. Market Information - As of 2:30, the Shanghai gold main contract closed down 0.05% at 778 yuan/gram, the Shanghai silver main contract closed down 0.11% at 9,167 yuan/kg, and the SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.71% at 519 yuan/barrel. Trump said the US will send more weapons to Ukraine, and the expectation of US sanctions against Russia pushed Brent crude oil prices above 71 dollars/barrel during European afternoon trading. [11]