能源化策略周报：地缘短暂?撑油价，化?跟涨不?分化较-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives investment outlooks for individual energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc. For example, the outlook for crude oil is "oscillating weakly", and for pure benzene is "oscillating strongly" [17][18]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is currently in an oscillating pattern. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and US - Russia relations, and the prices of downstream chemical products are influenced by factors such as cost support, supply - demand relationships, and device maintenance [1][2]. - In the short - term, investors can base on the positive or negative basis to try trading strategies of buying strong and selling weak. For example, during the contract roll - over period from late July to early August, this strategy can be considered [2]. - Different chemical products have different price trends and influencing factors. For instance, ethylene glycol rebounds due to low inventory and device maintenance; asphalt shows strong performance due to limited production and inventory reduction; while high - sulfur fuel oil faces downward pressure due to increased supply and weakening demand [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. The trade surplus in June was $115 billion. In the first half of 2025, China's exports were a key driver of economic growth, but this support may weaken in the second half if global trade tensions rise [8]. - As of July 11, the oil tanker capacity of tankers that had been anchored for at least 7 days decreased by 4.6% compared to July 4. Floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region continued to rise, while that in other regions declined [8]. - The Caspian Pipeline's (CPC) crude oil exports in June increased by 8% compared to May, reaching 6.177 million tons, or 1.63 million barrels per day [8]. - The US President threatened to impose severe economic penalties on Russia if it does not end hostilities with Ukraine. If no agreement is reached within 50 days, a 100% tariff may be imposed [9]. - China's imports of Iranian crude oil in June reached the highest level since March, increasing to over 1.7 million barrels per day, compared to 1.1 million barrels per day in May [9]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On July 15, crude oil prices fell as the US may not impose sanctions on Russia's oil in the short - term but urged Russia to reach an agreement with Ukraine. The current supply - demand of the crude oil market is gradually loosening, and investors are advised to view oil prices with an oscillating - weakly perspective [7][10]. 3.2.2 LPG - The cost - side support for LPG is weakening, and the fundamental situation of supply - excess remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly. The supply of LPG and civil gas is still at a relatively high level in the same historical period, and demand is weak during the off - season [14][16]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is under great downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production in August and September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The current price of asphalt is over - valued, and the monthly spread may decline as warehouse receipts increase [11][12]. 3.2.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price faces downward pressure. OPEC + may continue to increase production, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation is weakening. The supply of heavy oil is increasing, and the three driving factors supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening [12][13]. 3.2.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The spread between low - and high - sulfur fuel oils continues to rebound. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the movement of crude oil, but it is facing the situation of increasing supply and falling demand, and may maintain a low - valuation operation [13][15]. 3.2.6 Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up load is decreasing, and the futures price oscillates. The market's expectation of reduced methanol imports has weakened, and the port inventory has increased. The production profit of methanol is still relatively high, and the profit of coastal MTO has been repaired to some extent [28][29]. 3.2.7 Urea - The speculative sentiment for urea is slowing down, and the futures price may be under pressure in the short - term. The supply pressure has been slightly relieved due to temporary device maintenance in high - temperature weather, but overall demand is weak, and the market still faces pressure before inventory reduction [28][29]. 3.2.8 Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol continues to oscillate and consolidate. The port inventory is at a low level, and there are device maintenance plans. The restart of Saudi Arabian devices is not going smoothly, which supports the price [22][23]. 3.2.9 PX - Crude oil is strong, and PX rebounds. In the short - term, the cost - side crude oil is likely to remain at a high level, and the overall PX start - up load in Asia is low. The release of new PTA production capacity is imminent, and the market sentiment is cautiously bullish [17]. 3.2.10 PTA - The cost of PTA is strong, and the price rises. Although the supply of PTA is sufficient next week and downstream polyester factories plan to cut production, the cost - side PX provides strong support, and the decline in PTA prices is expected to be limited [17][18]. 3.2.11 Short - Fiber - The short - fiber processing fee remains stable, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. The inventory pressure of short - fiber factories is small, and the sales volume of short - fiber has increased periodically, indicating that the profitable processing fee can continue [23][24]. 3.2.12 Bottle Chips - The basis of bottle chips drops rapidly, and the supply - demand pattern is dull. The supply of bottle chips will gradually decrease, and the processing fee is expected to find support between 350 - 400 yuan/ton and then move towards 500 - 600 yuan/ton [25][26]. 3.2.13 PP - The short - term driving force for PP is limited, and it oscillates. The commodity market sentiment has been boosted, but the impact on PP is limited. The raw material support is weakening, and the supply side is still under pressure [32][33]. 3.2.14 Plastic - The maintenance of plastic slightly increases, and it oscillates. The commodity market sentiment has an impact on plastic, but it mainly follows the trend. The raw material support is weakening, and the supply side still has pressure [32]. 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene is decreasing, and crude oil is strong, so pure benzene oscillates at a high level. In the short - term, there are positive news from downstream industries, and the macro - sentiment is high. In the medium - term, the situation from July to August is favorable, but the high inventory suppresses the rebound [18]. 3.2.16 Styrene - The port supply of styrene is concentrated, and it is strong. The fundamentals of pure benzene have improved, and although there is no strong support for styrene, there is no obvious drag either. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken, but the inventory in the industry is not high, and the port supply is concentrated [20][21]. 3.2.17 PVC - There is a strong expectation but weak reality for PVC, and it oscillates. Macro - level policies boost market sentiment, but the mid - long - term fundamentals are under pressure due to new production capacity, off - season demand, and limited export growth [35]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - The spot rebound of caustic soda slows down, and it oscillates. The support comes from positive market sentiment, weak liquid chlorine prices, and low inventory in the caustic soda industry. The pressure comes from the slowdown of spot price increases and pessimistic supply - demand expectations [36][37]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads for various energy and chemical products. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent crude oil is 1.26, with a change of 0.06; the basis of asphalt is 164, with a change of - 40; the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 322, with a change of - 47 [38][39][40]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists the monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical products, it does not provide specific data analysis in the given content. It only mentions the names of products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [41][52][64].