全球制造业PMI跟踪：6月，阶段性回升

Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Overview - The global manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 50.3, an increase of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[6] - The production index rose by 2.3 percentage points to 51.3, while the demand index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.1, showing significant recovery in both supply and demand[25] - Emerging markets saw a substantial recovery, with a 1.2 percentage point increase to 50.4, returning to the expansion zone[31] Group 2: Regional Insights - China's manufacturing PMI improved by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold, with new orders rising by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2[55] - The US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.0, still in contraction territory, with new orders experiencing the largest decline in three months[86] - India's manufacturing sector showed strong performance, while the EU manufacturing sector improved moderately, and ASEAN manufacturing weakened slightly[6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The current phase of tariff relief is expected to provide temporary support to global manufacturing, but future tariff policies remain uncertain[7] - The pace of interest rate cuts in the US will continue to be constrained by inflationary pressures[7] - Risks include domestic and international economic fluctuations, changes in macro liquidity regulations, and potential oversupply of raw materials leading to price declines[7]