政策与大类资产配置周观察：”对等关税”再临，TACO面临考验

Group 1: Domestic Policy Insights - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of international operations for domestic enterprises, highlighting the increasing significance of overseas investments for domestic economic development [11] - The recent meeting between Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Brazilian President Lula underscores the strengthening of China-Brazil relations, with bilateral trade reaching a record $181.5 billion in 2023 [11] - The Chinese government is committed to enhancing support for enterprises operating abroad, focusing on financial, insurance, and safety measures to create a better environment for business [11] Group 2: Overseas Policy Insights - The U.S. has initiated a new round of tariff pressures, threatening high tariffs on 25 countries if they do not comply with U.S. demands by August 1 [19] - The tariffs range from 25% to 50% depending on the country, with significant implications for international trade dynamics [19] - The U.S. administration's focus on reducing trade deficits may lead to further escalations in trade tensions, impacting global markets [19] Group 3: Equity Market Analysis - A-shares have shown a positive trend, with major indices like the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index rising nearly 2% in the past week, driven by improved market sentiment [25] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 24.119 billion yuan during the second week of July, indicating strong investor interest in A-shares [25] - The MSCI China A-share Index also saw a 1.06% increase, reflecting overall market optimism [25] Group 4: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China has indicated a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan in open market operations last week [49] - The 10-year government bond yield has shown slight recovery, reflecting market adjustments to the evolving monetary policy landscape [49] - The expansion of the Bond Connect program to include more non-bank institutions is expected to enhance overseas asset allocation opportunities for domestic investors [50] Group 5: Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals have continued to decline, while precious metals have rebounded slightly, indicating mixed trends in the commodity market [49] - The IEA reports that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year, which may impact oil prices moving forward [49] - The Chinese government has set clear goals for new urbanization, which may influence agricultural and commodity markets in the long term [49]