瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The steel mills are facing increasing cost - inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board, forcing them to increase production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further. Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty and export demand pressure, the downstream shows a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought by subsequent production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short positions. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,715 yuan/ton, with a change of +5; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,072 lots, with a change of - 540; the main contract position is 66,494 lots, with a change of - 11,562. The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,991 tons, with a change of - 60 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change. The SS main contract basis is 205 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, with no change. The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231,836,100 square meters, an increase of 53,477,700 square meters. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 246,000 units, with a change of - 10,400 units; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, with a change of - 200 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, with a change of - 10,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. In June, the M2 - M1 gap was 3.7 percentage points, 1.9 percentage points smaller than in May. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately easy monetary policy. China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through exchange - rate depreciation, and service consumption is the key to boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand. The EU's Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security said that if the US - EU trade negotiations fail, the EU is prepared to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imported goods worth about 84 billion US dollars. On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, but the release of Indonesia's nickel - iron production capacity has accelerated, and the price of nickel - iron has dropped significantly recently, weakening the raw material cost support [2].