Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:37Report Summary - Report Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Report Name: Hot Rolled Coil Industry Chain Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On Tuesday, the HC2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, China's fixed - asset investment in the first half of the year increased by 2.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate continuing to slow down, dampening market sentiment. - In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.55%. The factory inventory decreased while the social inventory increased, with the total inventory rising by 0.63 tons. The apparent demand decreased slightly but remained above 3.2 million tons. - Overall, the hot - rolled coil output remained at a relatively high level, and the terminal demand showed strong resilience. The promotion of the orderly exit of backward production capacity still supported the steel market, but the decline in the first - half economic data affected market confidence. - Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward, with the green bar expanding. In operation, consider 3,200 as the long - short watershed in the short - term, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,259 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2] - HC main contract position: 1,566,776 lots, down 13,515 lots - HC contract top 20 net position: - 20,861 lots, up 2,773 lots - HC10 - 1 contract spread: - 18 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 64,587 tons, unchanged - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 145 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged - HC main contract basis: 51 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore: 752 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan - Domestic iron ore port inventory: 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons - Hebei billet inventory: 975,300 tons, up 101,900 tons 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 83.13%, down 0.31% [2] - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 89.87%, down 0.40% - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2314 million tons, down 50,000 tons - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 82.55%, down 1.28% - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 778,100 tons, down 5,100 tons - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.6775 million tons, up 11,400 tons - Domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons - Steel net export volume: 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.7941 million vehicles, up 145,600 vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.9045 million vehicles, up 218,100 vehicles - Air conditioners: 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units - Household refrigerators: 8.51 million units, up 331,000 units - Household washing machines: 9.412 million units, down 239,000 units 3.6 Industry News - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; steel output was 127.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%; steel output was 734.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 24.8654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. After deducting the impact of price factors, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 5.3% year - on - year. On a month - on - month basis, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in June decreased by 0.12%.