瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar has great uncertainty, and Thailand prohibits the transit of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently the tin ore processing fee remains at a historically low level [3] - In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and cost pressure, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure and the operating rate remains at a low level [3] - In the demand sector, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment ended, the operating rate of some producers decreased; the electronics industry entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [3] - Recently, tin prices have been widely adjusted. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas inventory continues to decline with an increase in LME cancelled warrants [3] - Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low position, and the price is adjusted widely within the range. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 266,720 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan; the closing price of the 3 - month LME tin is 33,565 US dollars/ton, up 115 US dollars [3] - The closing price of the August - September contract of Shanghai Tin is 20 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is 25,204 lots, up 1,054 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in futures of Shanghai Tin is 435 lots, down 467 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 1,970 tons, down 45 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,097 tons (weekly), down 101 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 570 tons, down 25 tons [3] - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,605 tons (daily), down 26 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 266,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 266,180 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 220 yuan/ton, down 2,980 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 251.8 US dollars/ton, down 274.01 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons (monthly), down 2,900 tons; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan [3] - The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 173,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons (monthly), up 144,500 tons [3] - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14,070 tons, down 3,390 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - In June in China, the social financing increment was 420 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 224 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [3] - The EU is prepared to impose counter - tariffs on US imports worth about 84 billion US dollars if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [3] - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is uncertain, and Thailand prohibits the transit of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently the tin ore processing fee remains at a historically low level [3]