Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:36Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract faced pressure and pulled back. The real - estate market's downturn drags down steel prices, but the exit of backward production capacity supports the steel market. The weekly output of rebar decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.49%. The total inventory slightly declined, and the apparent demand dropped by 3.37 tons. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows a downward adjustment. It is recommended to trade in the range of 3140 - 3090 for the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,114.00 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; position: 2,153,852 lots, up 31,511 lots; top 20 net positions: - 8,161 lots, down 31,162 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread: - 46 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt: 96,689 tons, up 8,179 tons; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 145 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,260.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight): 3,344 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,190.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; RB main contract basis: 146.00 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 50.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 752.00 yuan/wet ton, down 3.00 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,265.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; domestic iron ore port inventory: 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory: 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons; Tangshan billet inventory: 975,300 tons, up 101,900 tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.13%, down 0.31%; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 89.87%, down 0.40%; sample steel mill rebar output: 2.1666 million tons, down 44,200 tons; sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 47.49%, down 0.98%; sample steel mill rebar inventory: 1.8088 million tons, up 4,100 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 3.5949 million tons, down 52,500 tons; independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 60.42%, down 3.12%; domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1.73 million tons, up 42,000 tons; steel net export volume: 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National Real Estate Climate Index: 93.60, down 0.11; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 2.80%, down 0.90%; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment: - 11.20%, down 0.50%; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 4.60%, down 1.00%; cumulative value of housing construction area: 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.01 million square meters; cumulative value of new housing construction area: 303.64 million square meters, down 71.8 million square meters; commercial housing unsold area: 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; pig iron output was 71.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%; steel output was 127.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%; pig iron output was 434.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%; steel output was 734.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 4.6658 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The cumulative housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. The housing completion area was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8% [2].