Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:36Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold maintains a volatile trend under the environment of a strong US dollar and high interest rates, but long - term support is determined by the de - dollarization process, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of monetary policy shifts. Trump's plan to impose tariffs on 14 countries from August 1 could disrupt the global supply chain, driving safe - haven funds into gold ETFs. Fed officials Waller and Daly signaled dovishness, mentioning the possibility of rate cuts this year, attracting long - term allocation buying. Downward pressure on gold prices comes from the currency and interest - rate environment, with the rising US dollar index increasing the cost of holding gold and high US government fiscal deficits pushing up long - term US Treasury yields. If the US June CPI data released tonight exceeds 3.0%, it may strengthen the hawkish stance and push up Treasury yields, further suppressing gold prices; data below 2.5% could boost rate - cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the Fed's Beige Book on July 17 and the risk of trade conflict escalation after the August 1 tariff implementation [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 780.4 yuan/gram, down 1 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9225 yuan/kilogram, up 18 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 198,270 lots, up 7,187 lots; those of Shanghai silver are 450,115 lots, up 2,020 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 139,691 lots, up 5,899 lots; those of Shanghai silver are 146,976 lots, down 567 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,872 kilograms, up 15 kilograms; that of silver is 1,222,959 kilograms, down 1,023 kilograms [2] Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.8 yuan/gram, up 0.6 yuan; the spot price of silver is 9,146 yuan/kilogram, down 22 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 5.6 yuan/gram, up 1.6 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 79 yuan/kilogram, down 40 yuan [2] Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 947.64 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings are 14,966.24 tons, up 207.72 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 202,968 contracts, up 988 contracts; those of silver are 58,521 contracts, down 4,879 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.19%, down 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 13.65%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.81%, up 2.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.8%, up 2.27% [2] Industry News - Trump urged Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement, threatening 100% secondary tariffs and said the US would consult with other countries on tariffs and is open to trade negotiations with Europe. He also called for Fed Chairman Powell to resign, and White House economic advisor Hassett said Trump has the right to fire Powell. Cleveland Fed President Harker hopes to see further inflation decline before supporting rate cuts. The market generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the July 29 - 30 meeting. The EU's Šefčovič said the EU is ready to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imports worth 72 billion euros (about 84 billion US dollars) if the US - EU trade talks fail. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.2%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 60.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 3.2% [2]