Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:35Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - General Situation: The report analyzes the supply - demand, price trends, and influencing factors of the rapeseed - related products (rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal) in both domestic and international markets. It points out that the prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are affected by multiple factors such as international market trends, domestic supply - demand, and policy - related uncertainties [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: In the international market, the good weather in the US soybean - producing areas leads to a high expected yield, and the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China increases the supply of soybean meal, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. However, the upcoming peak season of aquaculture boosts the demand for rapeseed meal, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens this demand. The price of rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: Internationally, the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and the decline in exports put pressure on the market. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption, high inventory of rapeseed oil in factories, and the weakening of rapeseed in the international market drag down the price of domestic rapeseed oil. Although the decline in factory operating rates and the small number of rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may support the price, the short - term volatility of rapeseed oil may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: The closing prices of active contracts for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. The prices of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal were 9404 yuan/ton and 2655 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decrease of 20 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton [2]. - Spreads and Positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 68 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 343 yuan/ton. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 2216 lots to 14433 lots, while that of rapeseed meal increased by 9308 lots to 14223 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3510, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 2380 to 10086 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 9540 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2560 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 9580 yuan/ton [2]. - Price Spreads: The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05 to 3.64. The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1340 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 770 yuan/ton. The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Imports: The global rapeseed production forecast increased by 0.21 million tons to 89.77 million tons. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed decreased by 15.37 tons to 33.55 tons, and the import cost of rapeseed decreased by 6.55 yuan/ton to 4887.11 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory and Operating Rates: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills increased by 5 tons to 20 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed decreased by 2.67% to 9.86% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Imports and Inventories: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 10 tons to 34 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 4.13 tons to 28.79 tons. The weekly inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased by 0.72 tons to 9.29 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 1.05 tons to 1.51 tons [2]. - Inventory in Different Regions: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region decreased by 0.68 tons to 59.27 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 2.46 tons to 38.04 tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region decreased by 0.3 tons to 6.9 tons, and that of rapeseed meal in the South China region decreased by 1.1 tons to 28.2 tons [2]. - 提货 Volume: The weekly提货 volume of rapeseed oil increased by 1.18 tons to 3.29 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 0.14 tons to 2.46 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and Consumption: The monthly production of feed increased by 98.1 tons to 2762.1 tons, and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry increased by 411.2 billion yuan to 4578.2 billion yuan. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil decreased by 87 tons to 440.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal increased, with the call option increasing by 1.25% to 19.42% and the put option increasing by 1.41% to 19.43%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil also increased, both by about 1% [2]. - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.08% to 14.6%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 1.12% to 16.79%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.44% to 11.38%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.02% to 13.17% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Rapeseed Futures: On Monday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 0.1%. The prices of different contracts decreased by 0.1 - 1.3 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - Soybean Situation: As of July 13, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than the analyst's expectation. The concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China led to a high operating rate of oil mills and a loose short - term supply of soybean meal [2]. - Palm Oil Situation: The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 2.41% to 203 tons at the end of June, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 15 decreased [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - Data: The rapeseed operating rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in different regions released by Myagric on Monday are important data to watch [2]. - Trade Disputes: The development of trade disputes between China and Canada, and between Canada and the US may affect the rapeseed market [2].