Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:38Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the consumption off - season, demand is stable but trending weaker. The key factors affecting the short - term market are the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of secondary fattening. The short - term supply shortage has slightly improved, the price boost is weakened, the upward pace slows down, and the demand off - season and medium - term supply pressure will still restrict the price upside. The market will mainly show an oscillatory trend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 14,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the main contract position is 67,876 lots, a decrease of 1,508 lots; the number of warehouses is 444 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 17,959 lots, a decrease of 1,301 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin is 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 16,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis is 315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 41,7310,000 heads, a decrease of 1,0120,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420,000 heads, an increase of 40,000 heads. The CPI year - on - year is - 0.1%, the corn spot price is 2,413.63 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 935.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.82 yuan; the DCE pig feed cost index is 2,830, an increase of 0.21 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of feed is 27,621,000 tons, an increase of 981,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,640 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is 31.6 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 13.2 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,2160,000 heads, an increase of 1390,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 457.82 billion yuan, an increase of 41.12 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of the second quarter, the live pig inventory was 424,470,000 heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; in the first half of the year, the live pig slaughter was 366,190,000 heads, an increase of 0.6%. On the supply side, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has slightly improved recently. On the demand side, high temperatures suppress people's willingness to buy pork, schools are on holiday, the terminal sales speed is slow, and the slaughterhouse operating rate continues to decline, but it is higher than the same period last year [2].