Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:35Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that due to the resumption of production in previously overhauled units, the daily output of domestic urea has increased, and the short - term urea operating rate may remain high. As the agricultural demand season is approaching, only local agricultural top - dressing has a small amount of demand. The autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizer enterprises are good, leading to an increase in the operating rate and procurement. The operating rate of melamine has recovered, but weak downstream demand may limit its further increase. Recently, the shipment of urea factories varies significantly, and inventory changes are mixed. Last week, the overall inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline, and some urea factories continued to execute previous export orders. However, this week, the industrial demand is expected to weaken further, the increase in agricultural demand is decreasing, and as the execution of previous export orders enters the later stage, the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down. The unexpectedly high urea tender price in India boosts the confidence of the domestic market. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the release time, quantity, and allocated enterprises of the second batch of urea export quotas. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1720 - 1750 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1731 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 201,388 lots, an increase of 3,396 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 24,407 lots, a decrease of 2,450 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 2,630, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1790, 1840, 1840, 1810, and 1850 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 20, 10, 20, 10, and 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and the Chinese main port were 427.5 and 410 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory was 48.9 tons (weekly), an increase of 4.9 tons; the enterprise inventory was 96.77 tons (weekly), a decrease of 5.08 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises was 85.26% (weekly), an increase of 0.94%; the daily output of urea was 197,400 tons (weekly), an increase of 2,200 tons [2]. - The export volume of urea was 0, unchanged; the monthly output of urea was 6,031,340 tons, a decrease of 261,890 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 29.83% (weekly), an increase of 0.58%; the operating rate of melamine was 62.56% (weekly), a decrease of 0.43% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer was 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine (using externally - purchased urea) was - 646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 216 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 416.82 tons, a decrease of 64.08 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons from the previous week, a 4.99% decrease [2]. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.94%, a 0.55% increase [2]. - As of July 10, the weekly output of Chinese urea was 138.18 tons, an increase of 1.53 tons from the previous week, a 1.12% increase; the average daily output was 19.74 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons [2]. 4. Suggested Focus The report suggests paying attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].