瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - Internationally, the high initial growth - stage excellent rate of US corn maintains good output prospects, continuously pressuring international corn prices. Domestically, with continuous auctions of imported corn, the transaction rate declines, premiums shrink, market sentiment cools. High - temperature weather in summer affects grain storage, increasing traders' willingness to sell. Deep - processing plants have low operating rates and weak procurement demand. Wheat has obvious feed substitution advantages, reducing corn's feed demand. So, the spot price of corn shows a weak trend, and the futures price has declined from high - level oscillations [2]. Corn Starch - Due to continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and downstream demand is in the traditional off - season. The supply - demand situation remains loose. Affected by the decline in corn prices, the starch price has also fallen recently [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 2,295 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,388 lots, up 401 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 185,811 lots, down 8,315 lots. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active contract is 2,641 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,235 lots, up 2,518 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 18,439 lots, down 460 lots. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 346 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 418.5 cents/bushel, up 6.25 cents; the total position is 1,498,964 lots, up 297 lots; the non - commercial net long position is - 141,762 lots, up 13,764 lots [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2,413.63 yuan/ton, down 3.82 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 1,899.76 yuan/ton, up 15.44 yuan. - Corn Starch: The factory price in Changchun is 2,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the factory price in Shijiazhuang is 2,860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the corn main contract is 118.63 yuan/ton, up 3.18 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 59 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons. The sown areas of the corresponding countries are 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn: The inventory in southern ports is 88.6 tons, down 15.5 tons; the inventory in northern ports is 353 tons, down 17 tons; the monthly import volume is 19 tons, up 1 ton. - Corn Starch: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 133.7 tons, up 2.4 tons; the monthly export volume is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly output is 2,762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons; the inventory days of sample feed corn is 31.58 days, down 0.38 days. - Corn Starch Processing: The processing profit in Shandong is - 119 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the processing profit in Hebei is - 11 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the processing profit in Jilin is - 65 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 42.96%, down 1.92%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 50.14%, down 1.06% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.29%, down 0.29%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.03%, up 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 11.06%, up 2.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.07%, up 2.05% [2]. Industry News - The US corn export inspection volume in the week ending July 10, 2025, is 1,287,159 tons, lower than the previous week. The transaction rates of the imported corn (genetically modified and non - genetically modified) auction on July 15 are 25% and 30% respectively. The excellent rate of US corn as of July 13 is 74%, consistent with market expectations [2]. Key Points to Monitor - Monitor the weekly consumption of corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3]