Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:38Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall production of methanol has slightly decreased recently as the capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from capacity recovery. The inventory of some enterprises has increased slightly due to fewer transport vehicles and low enthusiasm of traders for提货. The port inventory in East China has increased, while that in South China has decreased. The overall downstream demand remains weak, and the port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. The olefin industry's overall operating rate may increase slightly this week, but some MTO units are expected to shut down, and attention should be paid to the implementation of low - profit maintenance of MTO units. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2430 in the short term [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2386 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 69 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 650,875 lots, down 4,644 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 112,021 lots, down 8,122 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 9,251, up 723 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2385 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 410 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 1 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 277 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 241 euros/ton, down 4 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 56 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.45 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.05 million tons, up 6.1 million tons; the inventory in South China ports is 14.84 million tons, down 1.58 million tons. The import profit of methanol is - 26.11 yuan/ton, down 29.09 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 million tons, up 50.46 million tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 356,900 tons, up 4,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.75%, down 3.43 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 45.24%, down 0.83 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, unchanged. The operating rate of acetic acid is 93.91%, up 0.49 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 66.86%, up 1.8 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins is 85.15%, up 0.55 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 943 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.88%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.75%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.94%, up 0.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.95%, up 0.9 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of July 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.69 million tons, up 0.46 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 22.12 million tons, down 2.00 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.29%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 million tons, up 4.52 million tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased, while the inventory in South China decreased [2].