瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250715

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC price has limited upside space under the background of weak supply and demand after the digestion of previous macro - positive factors. V2509 is expected to focus on the support around 4950 and the pressure around 5050 on the daily K - line [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4975 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the trading volume is 982125 lots, down 51490 lots; the open interest is 959779 lots, up 2988 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 780350 lots, down 2969 lots; the short position is 788539 lots, up 13916 lots; the net long position is - 8189 lots, down 16885 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4868.46 yuan/ton, down 20.38 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5005 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4917.5 yuan/ton, down 31.88 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 105 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2621.67 yuan/ton, down 8.33 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, down 200.5 yuan. The weekly average price of VCM CFR Far East is 503 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars; the weekly average price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 548 dollars/ton, down 16 dollars. The weekly average price of EDC CFR Far East is 211 dollars/ton, up 27 dollars; the weekly average price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 219 dollars/ton, up 31 dollars [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, down 0.47 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, down 1.59 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, up 2.48 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, up 1.96 tons. The total social inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, up 1.95 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 4.29 tons, up 0.01 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, up 5347.77 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, up 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, up 4281.68 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.44%, up 0.1 percentage point; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.74%, up 0.1 percentage point. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.61%, up 1.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.61%, up 1.16 percentage points [3] Industry News - On July 14, the spot exchange price of Changzhou PVCSG5 was stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4820 to 4910 yuan/ton. From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. As of July 10th, the large - sample statistics of PVC social inventory increased by 5.37% month - on - month to 62.36 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34.15% [3] Outlook - In July, domestic PVC plants are under centralized maintenance. This week, a 300,000 - ton plant of Yidongdongxing is planned to stop for maintenance, and some previously shut - down plants will restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise month - on - month. In the long - term, the planned commissioning of plants by Wanhua, Bohua, and Tianjin Dagu in July will increase the industry's supply pressure. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. There is still uncertainty about the calcium carbide production restrictions in Inner Mongolia. Due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports to China, the domestic ethylene supply tends to be loose, and the cost of the ethylene - based process may continue to decline in the short term [3]