Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:35Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term LLDPE supply - demand remains weak, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should focus on the support around 7185 yuan/ton. In July, PE maintenance devices are numerous, with production and capacity utilization expected to decline. New devices from ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical are expected to be put into operation in the medium - long term, potentially increasing industry supply pressure. The downstream off - season continues, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline slightly. Recently, international oil prices have fallen due to concerns about US high - tariff impact on demand [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) is 7221, down 63; 1 - month contract is 7239, down 49; 5 - month contract is 7214, down 44; 9 - month contract is 7221, down 63. Volume is 307,485 hands, down 402; open interest is 433,865 hands, up 12,529. 1 - 5 month contract spread is 25, down 5. Futures top 20 long positions are 358,085 hands, up 5,953; short positions are 407,891 hands, up 17,427; net long positions are - 49,806 hands, down 11,474 [2] 现货市场 - LLDPE(7042) average price in North China is 7,230 yuan/ton, down 30; in East China is 7,332.2 yuan/ton, down 22.2. The basis is 9, up 33 [2] 上游情况 - FOB: middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 64.36 dollars/barrel, up 1.44; CFR: middle price of naphtha in Japan is 597 dollars/ton, up 12.75. Ethylene CFR Southeast Asia middle price is 831 dollars/ton, unchanged; ethylene CFR Northeast Asia middle price is 821 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67 percentage points [2] 下游情况 - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37; PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54 [2] 期权市场 - 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 12.88%, up 0.32; 40 - day historical volatility is 12.55%, up 0.2. At - the - money put option implied volatility is 13.01%, up 0.84; at - the - money call option implied volatility is 13%, up 0.83 [2] 行业消息 - From July 4th to 10th, China's polyethylene production was 605,900 tons, down 2.10% week - on - week; capacity utilization was 77.79%, down 1.67 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products was down 0.18% from the previous period. As of July 9th, L2509 oscillated and declined, closing at 7,221 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the impact of last - week's shutdown devices increased, with PE production down 2.10% to 605,900 tons, capacity utilization down 1.67% to 77.79%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of PE downstream products was down 0.18% week - on - week. The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 493,100 tons, up 12.48% from the previous period; the social sample warehouse inventory was 536,600 tons, up 3.68% from the previous period [2]