Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:30Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up. Overseas shipments arriving at the port increased, but downstream tire companies' cautious replenishment limited the port's shipping rate. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies varied last week. The production of semi - steel tire companies that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire companies dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires. This week, the production of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to recover, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,600 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,600 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,395 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 870 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,015 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 149,739 lots, up 1,146 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 65,375 lots, up 42,790 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 28,999 lots, down 2,443 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 10,258 lots, down 4,310 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 187,060 tons, down 1,590 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 36,792 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 155 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,439 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.29 Thai baht/kg, down 0.08 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 61.39 Thai baht/kg, down 0.61 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 54.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 16.6 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.55%, down 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.95%, down 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.95%, up 1.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.95%, up 1.61 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, with low precipitation in most other areas, reducing the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southeastern Indonesia, with low precipitation in most other areas, increasing the impact on tapping. As of July 13, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, up 4,000 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, up 1.66 percentage points month - on - month and down 14.25 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, down 0.42 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.55 percentage points year - on - year [2]