瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily as the short - term integer mark will be an important resistance level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,785 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 396,653 lots (down 6,237 lots), the net position of the top 20 is - 67,783 lots, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,258 lots, and the price difference between industrial silicon in August - September is 5 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,150 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), the Si main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, and the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, the weekly social inventory is 552,000 tons (up 10,000 tons), the monthly import volume is 71.51 tons, and the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, the daily average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, the daily market price of overseas photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 7,624.27 tons, the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41% (up 1.17%), the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons (down 337,930 tons), and the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There is a rumor that Xinjiang will cancel all electricity price subsidies, which will increase the cost of industrial silicon by 300 - 700 yuan/ton. Large manufacturers have temporarily cancelled their restart plans [3]. - The domestic industrial silicon spot market is stable, with the mainstream price of 421 in the domestic market ranging from 8,450 to 9,900 yuan/ton [3].