Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:29Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Great Beauty Act" and obvious economic stimulus for demand, lead prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and the annual line pressure still exists. Short - term investors can go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,005 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars [2]. - The spread between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 96,314 lots, up 1,494 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,343 lots, down 289 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 58,768 tons, up 3,638 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,149 tons, up 1,846 tons; the LME lead inventory was 260,950 tons, up 11,575 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract was - 80 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 32.78 dollars/ton, up 0.84 dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,220 yuan, down 100 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,770 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 77.87%, down 1.18%; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.61 tons, down 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons [2]. - The monthly import volume of lead ore was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [2]. - The average market price of waste batteries was 10,164.29 yuan/ton, down 3.57 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,450 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,735.01 points, up 2.86 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [2]. - In June, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 6.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%; from January to June, the output was 40.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [2]. - In June, the output of primary aluminum was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the output was 22.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The supply of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price, and the supply of recycled lead also increased slightly, but the supply increase was limited [2]. - The market transaction was weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased [2]. - Overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory increased slightly, mainly due to the obvious price difference between domestic and foreign markets and obvious import processing opportunities. It is expected that the profit margin will decline in the future [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate began to decline, which will have a negative impact on the subsequent output of recycled lead and primary lead [2].