行情转弱，短期震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is experiencing a weakening trend with short - term oscillations. The domestic supply - demand situation remains loose, unable to support high prices. Although export orders are being executed, quota issues may continue to affect the market, leading to a mainly oscillating urea futures market [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market opened lower and moved lower, with weak intraday oscillations. Spot prices are declining due to weak domestic demand. Currently, urea plants have both maintenance and restart operations, with daily production fluctuating around 200,000 tons. There will be new production capacity coming online, and supply - side pressure is hard to relieve in the short term. Demand is mainly from agricultural and industrial sectors. Agricultural demand in the main delivery areas is decreasing, and compound fertilizer plants are operating at a low level. Exports support the domestic market, and inventory is decreasing, which also boosts the urea market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,757 yuan/ton, closed at 1,731 yuan/ton, down 1.70%. The trading volume was 201,388 lots (+3,396 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 3,239 lots and short positions increased by 6,384 lots [2] - Spot: Spot prices are continuing to decline. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation is stable, while the futures closing price has decreased. The basis in Shandong for the September contract is 99 yuan/ton (+23 yuan/ton) [8] - Supply Data: On July 15, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,900 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.56% [10]