铜关税引市场波动：铜关税引市场波动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in Shanghai copper prices is mainly due to the US plan to impose a 50% copper tariff, exceeding previous expectations. There is a cold expectation for cross - regional arbitrage in the future, and export demand will significantly decrease. Although the expectation of tight supply at foreign copper mines has not been reversed, the downward space for copper is limited. Attention should be paid to the US CPI data tonight [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and weakened during the day. In June, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1%. Trump announced tariff hikes on 14 countries (effective on August 1), threatening to impose a 200% tariff on drugs and a 50% surcharge on copper. Since the implementation of the 232 copper tariff, US copper prices have risen significantly, while London copper and Shanghai copper prices have weakened to varying degrees [1]. - As of July 11, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee is - 43.23 US dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee is - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting plant processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expectation of extremely tight copper supply may improve. After the implementation of the 232 copper tariff, domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate [1]. - As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, an increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30% compared with the previous month. In June, the cable operating rate decreased, and the air - conditioning industry has passed its peak production and sales period and entered the off - season. The overall purchasing sentiment of downstream industries is weak, but emerging industries such as new energy have performed well [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened during the day, closing at 78,090. The long positions of the top 20 were 115,230 lots, a decrease of 705 lots; the short positions were 111,042 lots, an increase of 214 lots [4]. - Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 90 yuan per ton, and in South China it is 5 yuan per ton. On July 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9,595 US dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 40 US dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on July 11, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.23 US dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.32 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 50,100 tons, an increase of 15,800 tons from the previous period. As of July 14, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 69,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 109,600 tons, a slight increase of 900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 236,500 short tons, an increase of 3,061 short tons from the previous period [8].