Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Soybean Meal: Short - term rebound, with no fundamental bullish drivers, and the market is expected to move in a range. The main contract range is [2965, 3015] [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term rebound, with high tariffs and low imports providing support. The short - term market is treated as a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at previous highs. The main contract range is [2620, 2700] [1]. - Palm Oil: Short - term bullish. Although there is an inventory build - up cycle, multiple bullish factors are at play. However, caution is needed when going long due to the supply season. The main contract range is [8600, 8800] [1]. - Cotton: Rebound is under pressure. The market is affected by a combination of bullish and bearish factors, and the cotton price is expected to face pressure at the 14,000 level. The main contract range is [13750, 13950] [1]. - Red Dates: Sell on rallies. The new - season production shows no obvious signs of reduction, and the inventory is high while demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to sell on rallies after the second - crop flower setting in the middle and late period. The main contract range is [10200, 10650] [1]. - Live Pigs: Weak and volatile. The short - term market is affected by the slaughter rhythm and second - fattening entry. The upside space for pig prices is limited, and there is a risk of a callback in the 09 contract. The main contract range is [14150, 14450] [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Market Situation: The US soybean planting weather is generally smooth, and South America has a bumper harvest. In China, ports and oil mills are in the inventory build - up stage for soybeans and soybean meal. Feed enterprises' inventory is higher than last year, and the enthusiasm for further replenishment is expected to slow down [1]. - Data: As of July 11, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 35.10 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 657.49 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.09 million tons, or 3.31% [3]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2992 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2908.86 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Situation: From July to September, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. However, the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to consumption [1]. - Data: As of July 11, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 14.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.05 million tons [8]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2659 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2632.11 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [5]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: The inventory build - up cycle in Southeast Asia has started, but there are multiple bullish factors such as low - price procurement demand from China and India, US biodiesel policies, and the promotion of Malaysia's B20 policy. The US's potential 32% tariff on Indonesia will benefit Malaysian palm oil [1]. - Data: As of July 11, 2025, the national key areas' commercial inventory of palm oil was 56.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.79 million tons, or 5.21% [11]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8748 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day. The national average price was 8860 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [9]. Cotton - Market Situation: In the US, the cotton planting area has decreased year - on - year, but the excellent - good rate is high, and the weekly export has increased significantly. In China, the new cotton is growing well, and the actual sown area is higher than expected. The import of cotton has decreased, and the inventory of domestic cotton is decreasing [1]. - Data: In 2025, the US cotton planting area was 10.1 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The national cotton actual sown area was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [13][14]. - Price: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, closed at 13875 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.20% to 15313 yuan/ton [12][13]. Red Dates - Market Situation: The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and there are no obvious signs of yield reduction. The inventory is at a historical high, and the demand is in the off - season [1]. - Data: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10430 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 90 tons, higher than the same period last year by 4630 tons [17]. - Price: The main contract, CJ2601, closed at 10390 yuan/ton, down 2.03% from the previous day [17]. Live Pigs - Market Situation: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in July has decreased compared to June, and scale farms are holding back on sales. In the medium and long term, the number of newborn piglets from January to May 2025 has increased, indicating potential growth in the second - half slaughter volume [1]. - Data: The national sample enterprises' monthly pig inventory was 3719.93 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31%; the monthly pig slaughter volume was 11.2559 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.51% [18]. - Price: The main contract, Lh2509, closed at 14285 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day. The domestic live pig spot price increased by 0.07% to 14920 yuan/ton [18].
豆粕日报-20250715
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-15 09:42